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Difficult Offseason Ahead for the Brooklyn Nets
By Rafael Uehara
After the embarrassment that the first round elimination to the Bulls was, as Chicago dealt with multiple injuries to the team’s best players and could barely patch together a rotation that went eight deep, the Nets must now look ahead and figure out what to do moving forward. General-manager Billy King, who just signed an extension, will face a very difficult challenge this upcoming offseason. Brooklyn is going to have very little flexibility adding to this roster because the team already has $85 million in salaries committed for next season. They are way into luxury tax territory and sign-and-trades (usually how teams over the cap managed to sign free agents in the past) are no longer allowable for tax payers starting this summer. Guys like Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala and Andrei Kirilenko are immediately out of the picture then.
It will also be hard to navigate the trade market, unless King suddenly finds himself willing to involve Brook Lopez into talks. Lopez has three years and a little over $46 million left on his deal. Based on his noticeable improvement on defense and terrific production on offense, Lopez looks about properly paid. It was hard to engage the Magic into taking Lopez in exchange for Dwight Howard last summer, but after his very good season, more teams should be willing to see Lopez as a linchpin of a high profile trade. Despite his disappointing fourth quarter on game seven (in the eyes of some), it would be hard to see Brooklyn being open minded about parting ways with Lopez, though. He made the All Star team, averaged 23 points per 36 minutes and was the single constant on the team’s tumultuous first season in their new home. That should be an option worth taking a look at, though, considering what the other alternatives are.
Deron Williams had a very tough first half to the season due to an ankle injury but looked like a star-caliber player again after the All Star break. It is just so hard to get a player of that level in this league and the Nets gave up so much for him that it makes no sense to even consider moving away from him now, not after a season where he was seriously hurt half the time, regardless of how it ended.
It should be extremely hard to find a market for Joe Johnson. Not because of game seven, though. The guy was clearly hurt and couldn’t move out there, and people who are ignoring that are just annoying. It’s because Johnson didn’t have a very good year before that and has three years and roughly $70 million left in his contract. Under Avery Johnson, Johnson was mostly a very expensive spot-up shooter, then under PJ Carlesimo, he got some of those isolation possessions he was known for with the Hawks, but didn’t do as well as in his prime in Atlanta. Johnson shot just 42.3% from the field this season, averaged just 3.4 assists per 36 minutes and got to the rim just 85 times all season, according to basketball-reference.com. You can never state a guy is untradable in the NBA but this was Johnson’s age 31 season and considering how severe are the signs of decline and how much money he is owed, it is borderline impossible to see Brooklyn getting rid of him.
The challenges will be just as tough finding a market for Gerald Wallace too. King acquired Wallace for a draft pick that turned out to be the sixth overall, which the Blazers used on rookie of the year Damian Lillard. Then they signed Wallace to a four-year, $40 million extension. Many argue getting Wallace was key to reestablish Williams’ faith on the front-office and eventually getting him to re-sign. That’s speculation. What is fact is Wallace had a very below average season for a player earning as much money as he does. Wallace posted a .490 true-shooting percentage and the Bulls constantly ignored him on offense in the playoff series. He is an energy guy who couldn’t transform his energy into production in his age 30 season. It doesn’t project to get much better from now on. He was misused some. Carlesimo’s unwillingness to play him at stretch-four was almost beyond belief. I think he could still be productive as a small-ball power forward in a team with better shooting around him. But in this team, with this personnel, Wallace projects to continue being a weak link on offense. The league is going away from wingmen who can’t shoot. Tony Allen will have a tougher time this summer than many anticipate. It will likely be hard to generate interest for a 31-year old who is essentially a specialist and is owed $31 million over the next three years.
Mirza Teletovic was the Euroleague’s top scorer a couple of seasons ago but struggled with defensive principles in the NBA. He is on a friendly contract and big men who can shoot are a commodity in the league right now but I can’t imagine what meaningful return Brooklyn could get for him after he logged just 499 minutes this season. Just like the Nets traded for Reggie Evans last summer, I could see some other contender looking to add him as break-the-glass emergency back-up big, especially as he is earning just $1.6 million next season. But as they are over the cap, the Nets can’t take more salary than send on a trade, so it will be hard for Brooklyn to find someone who is earning as little money as Evans and is likely to make a bigger contribution than he just did this season.
Then, we get to Kris Humphries. Humphries was a very productive player in the lockout-shortened season for the Nets and the team needed to re-sign him to secure a volume rebounder around Lopez. But they did not re-sign him for $24 million because they thought he was worth that much. Humphries was signed for $12 million a year, so the Nets could offer to take almost all of the Magic’s bad salary in a possible Dwight Howard trade. Humphries got the second year because of his willingness to go along with the team’s clear plan of re-signing him with the well known intent of trading him. But it backfired on the Nets. The Lakers swooped in to steal Howard and Humphries had a terrible season. He remains the team’s best trading chip going into the offseason (outside of Lopez and Williams, of course) because the way Brooklyn might be able to add is targeting a player whose very large salary some other contender would like to shed off the books (Carlos Boozer, Amar’e Stoudemire, Pau Gasol, maybe Zach Randolph) and Humphries’ high cap number would help making those possible trades work. But life would still be much easier for the Nets without his $12 million on the books, as they would be just around $70 million and could work on getting below the tax.
With the 22nd pick in the draft, Brooklyn has intriguing possibilities but none that could really significantly impact their bottom line right now. Dario Saric, Giannis Adetokunbo, Lucas Nogueira or Mouhammadou Jaiteh could be terrific future investments but none of them are likely to play in the league next year, and even if they did, none would project to contribute right away. Sergey Karasev and Dennis Schroeder probably won’t be on the board by the time the Nets pick. I think they could do well choosing between Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Allen Crabbe and Reggie Bullock, who would strengthen the team’s main weakness at the wing, but they are late first-round prospects for a reason.
So, where the Nets actually have the best chance of improving significantly is at head coach. Brooklyn announced Carlesimo would not return about five minutes after the team was eliminated and already did the mandatory inquire on Phil Jackson. It was just reported Jackson declined whichever offer was made to him but the top ranked free agent coach, in my opinion, is Stan Van Gundy and he is still out there. If there is someone who is a sure thing to do more with what is already in place is Stan Van. He certainly could get them to play harder. Williams is known to be a difficult guy but Stan Van had Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis balling hard. He coached a team featuring Turkoglu, Lewis, Jameer Nelson and JJ Redick into elite status on defense. Obviously Lopez isn’t Howard but the improvements he made as a defender indicate he continues willing on working on his game, despite having already gotten his extension. We always hear good things about Brian Shaw, Mike Malone and some of these other top assistants and the next Tom Thibodeau is out there right now just waiting for his chance, but all things considered, Stan Van is the guy Brooklyn should be going after hard.
Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.
After the embarrassment that the first round elimination to the Bulls was, as Chicago dealt with multiple injuries to the team’s best players and could barely patch together a rotation that went eight deep, the Nets must now look ahead and figure out what to do moving forward. General-manager Billy King, who just signed an extension, will face a very difficult challenge this upcoming offseason. Brooklyn is going to have very little flexibility adding to this roster because the team already has $85 million in salaries committed for next season. They are way into luxury tax territory and sign-and-trades (usually how teams over the cap managed to sign free agents in the past) are no longer allowable for tax payers starting this summer. Guys like Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala and Andrei Kirilenko are immediately out of the picture then.
It will also be hard to navigate the trade market, unless King suddenly finds himself willing to involve Brook Lopez into talks. Lopez has three years and a little over $46 million left on his deal. Based on his noticeable improvement on defense and terrific production on offense, Lopez looks about properly paid. It was hard to engage the Magic into taking Lopez in exchange for Dwight Howard last summer, but after his very good season, more teams should be willing to see Lopez as a linchpin of a high profile trade. Despite his disappointing fourth quarter on game seven (in the eyes of some), it would be hard to see Brooklyn being open minded about parting ways with Lopez, though. He made the All Star team, averaged 23 points per 36 minutes and was the single constant on the team’s tumultuous first season in their new home. That should be an option worth taking a look at, though, considering what the other alternatives are.
Deron Williams had a very tough first half to the season due to an ankle injury but looked like a star-caliber player again after the All Star break. It is just so hard to get a player of that level in this league and the Nets gave up so much for him that it makes no sense to even consider moving away from him now, not after a season where he was seriously hurt half the time, regardless of how it ended.
It should be extremely hard to find a market for Joe Johnson. Not because of game seven, though. The guy was clearly hurt and couldn’t move out there, and people who are ignoring that are just annoying. It’s because Johnson didn’t have a very good year before that and has three years and roughly $70 million left in his contract. Under Avery Johnson, Johnson was mostly a very expensive spot-up shooter, then under PJ Carlesimo, he got some of those isolation possessions he was known for with the Hawks, but didn’t do as well as in his prime in Atlanta. Johnson shot just 42.3% from the field this season, averaged just 3.4 assists per 36 minutes and got to the rim just 85 times all season, according to basketball-reference.com. You can never state a guy is untradable in the NBA but this was Johnson’s age 31 season and considering how severe are the signs of decline and how much money he is owed, it is borderline impossible to see Brooklyn getting rid of him.
The challenges will be just as tough finding a market for Gerald Wallace too. King acquired Wallace for a draft pick that turned out to be the sixth overall, which the Blazers used on rookie of the year Damian Lillard. Then they signed Wallace to a four-year, $40 million extension. Many argue getting Wallace was key to reestablish Williams’ faith on the front-office and eventually getting him to re-sign. That’s speculation. What is fact is Wallace had a very below average season for a player earning as much money as he does. Wallace posted a .490 true-shooting percentage and the Bulls constantly ignored him on offense in the playoff series. He is an energy guy who couldn’t transform his energy into production in his age 30 season. It doesn’t project to get much better from now on. He was misused some. Carlesimo’s unwillingness to play him at stretch-four was almost beyond belief. I think he could still be productive as a small-ball power forward in a team with better shooting around him. But in this team, with this personnel, Wallace projects to continue being a weak link on offense. The league is going away from wingmen who can’t shoot. Tony Allen will have a tougher time this summer than many anticipate. It will likely be hard to generate interest for a 31-year old who is essentially a specialist and is owed $31 million over the next three years.
Mirza Teletovic was the Euroleague’s top scorer a couple of seasons ago but struggled with defensive principles in the NBA. He is on a friendly contract and big men who can shoot are a commodity in the league right now but I can’t imagine what meaningful return Brooklyn could get for him after he logged just 499 minutes this season. Just like the Nets traded for Reggie Evans last summer, I could see some other contender looking to add him as break-the-glass emergency back-up big, especially as he is earning just $1.6 million next season. But as they are over the cap, the Nets can’t take more salary than send on a trade, so it will be hard for Brooklyn to find someone who is earning as little money as Evans and is likely to make a bigger contribution than he just did this season.
Then, we get to Kris Humphries. Humphries was a very productive player in the lockout-shortened season for the Nets and the team needed to re-sign him to secure a volume rebounder around Lopez. But they did not re-sign him for $24 million because they thought he was worth that much. Humphries was signed for $12 million a year, so the Nets could offer to take almost all of the Magic’s bad salary in a possible Dwight Howard trade. Humphries got the second year because of his willingness to go along with the team’s clear plan of re-signing him with the well known intent of trading him. But it backfired on the Nets. The Lakers swooped in to steal Howard and Humphries had a terrible season. He remains the team’s best trading chip going into the offseason (outside of Lopez and Williams, of course) because the way Brooklyn might be able to add is targeting a player whose very large salary some other contender would like to shed off the books (Carlos Boozer, Amar’e Stoudemire, Pau Gasol, maybe Zach Randolph) and Humphries’ high cap number would help making those possible trades work. But life would still be much easier for the Nets without his $12 million on the books, as they would be just around $70 million and could work on getting below the tax.
With the 22nd pick in the draft, Brooklyn has intriguing possibilities but none that could really significantly impact their bottom line right now. Dario Saric, Giannis Adetokunbo, Lucas Nogueira or Mouhammadou Jaiteh could be terrific future investments but none of them are likely to play in the league next year, and even if they did, none would project to contribute right away. Sergey Karasev and Dennis Schroeder probably won’t be on the board by the time the Nets pick. I think they could do well choosing between Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Allen Crabbe and Reggie Bullock, who would strengthen the team’s main weakness at the wing, but they are late first-round prospects for a reason.
So, where the Nets actually have the best chance of improving significantly is at head coach. Brooklyn announced Carlesimo would not return about five minutes after the team was eliminated and already did the mandatory inquire on Phil Jackson. It was just reported Jackson declined whichever offer was made to him but the top ranked free agent coach, in my opinion, is Stan Van Gundy and he is still out there. If there is someone who is a sure thing to do more with what is already in place is Stan Van. He certainly could get them to play harder. Williams is known to be a difficult guy but Stan Van had Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis balling hard. He coached a team featuring Turkoglu, Lewis, Jameer Nelson and JJ Redick into elite status on defense. Obviously Lopez isn’t Howard but the improvements he made as a defender indicate he continues willing on working on his game, despite having already gotten his extension. We always hear good things about Brian Shaw, Mike Malone and some of these other top assistants and the next Tom Thibodeau is out there right now just waiting for his chance, but all things considered, Stan Van is the guy Brooklyn should be going after hard.
Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.
2013 Euroleague Final Four Preview
By Rafael Uehara
We are officially within a week of the Euroleague Final Four, with this year’s edition taking place in London. The 2013 Final Four will feature three of the four teams that made it to Istanbul in 2012, including a rematch of the epic championship game between CSKA Moscow and Olympiacos Piraeus as one of the semifinals. The other will be a renew of Spain’s biggest rivalry as Real Madrid and Regal FC Barcelona go at it for the fourth time this season, none more important than this one.
Barcelona has won 25 of their 29 games in the Euroleague, but does not get to London as the heavy favorites to win their second title in the last five seasons. Barça has once more played the most dominant defense in European basketball, holding opponents to 94.3 points per 100 possessions, which was quite surprising considering linchpins to the team’s elite stand in prevention in years past such as Boniface N’Dong, Kosta Perovic and Fran Vázquez were let go last summer so more offensive talent in the form of Ante Tomic and Nathan Jawai could be added.
Last year, Barcelona was too codependent of Juan Carlos Navarro and Erazem Lorbek to score and when the former started dealing with plantar fasciitis late in the season and the latter chose a bad day to have a bad day, Barça just didn’t have enough against an Olympiacos’ defense that had emerged as one of the best in the continent on their run to the championship. Aside from adding more scoring pedigree with Tomic and Jawai and shot creation with God Jasikevicius, head-coach Xavi Pascual modernized the attack from a post-up heavy scheme with pick-and-rolls featuring mostly only Navarro and Lorbek to a more democratic perimeter oriented offense that makes better usage of Marcelinho Huertas’s presence and eased the dependence of Navarro and Lorbek. Barcelona arrives at the Final Four leading the league in scoring at the rim and ranking fifth in scoring per possession.
At this point, one might wonder that if Barça has played dominant ball on both sides of the court, why aren’t they the top favorites. The reasons are threefold; Pete Mickeal’s absence, some of the problems Panathinaikos exposed in the recent quarterfinal series and the fact that Real Madrid is a team built to beat Barcelona.
Mickeal was having one of the best seasons of his career at age 35. He was the team’s most impactful defender (Barça allowed just 92.3 points per 100 possessions with him in the lineup) and efficient perimeter scorer (ranking third in the team in scoring in the lane, only behind the centers). His absence has exposed the team’s lack of a true backup at his position. Joe Ingles acted as Navarro’s backup early in the season and was mostly out of favor before the series against Panathinaikos, in which he lost key playing time to Alex Abrines during games three and four before getting 31 minutes on the decisive game five. Abrines really played well just two or three times this year and is only an option at forward when the team goes zone. Xabi Rabaseda was hurt during the quarterfinals, just after he had finally put a string of some consistent performances together. Pascual has at times opted for three-guard sets featuring either of Huertas or Victor Sada at the point alongside God and Navarro, but Pascual has avoided going to those sets much (just 16 minutes in Euroleague play) due to the defensive deficiencies of all those guys but Sada.
Panathinaikos exposed that without Mickeal Barça is pretty much unathletic and suffers with speed and physicality. Jonas Maciulus posted Joe Ingles with ease, and so did Roko Ukic any of the guards. When healthy for the first portion of that series, James Gist had a big impact drawing Lorbek and CJ Wallace into the perimeter and then attacking closeouts. Despite having more talent, Barça only got away from PAO in the last two games when Pascual inserted a zone defense for extended periods of time. Over the last two years, since Pablo Laso has taken over, Real Madrid has focused on adding more athletic types, exactly because of Barcelona.
Under Ettore Messina and Emanuel Molin, Barça dominated Real Madrid but under Laso, things started to change some. Last season, Madrid ran over Barça in the King’s Cup and split the Spanish ACB regular-season meetings. They were the favorites over their arch-rivals in the ACB Finals, but the implosion in the Euroleague top 16 carried over to the domestic side and Madrid lost the championship to Barcelona on gave five. This season, Madrid won the preseason Superleague, lost in the King’s Cup (in a two-overtime thriller) and the teams once more split the Spanish ACB regular-season meetings, each winning at home, with Madrid’s victory happening eight days ago.
Real Madrid has played arguably the most crowd pleasing basketball in Europe, alongside CSKA Moscow. Madrid has won 20 of 27 games in the Euroleague and 28 of 32 games in the Spanish ACB. It just ran over a very solid Maccabi Tel Aviv squad to earn a ticket to London. Just like last season, this year’s squad is a scoring machine, finishing third in scoring per possession, averaging 111.2 points per 100 possessions in continental play. What makes this team a legit championship contender, while the previous one failed to make it out of the top 16, is the significant improvement on defense. Last year’s team allowed 103.1 points per 100 possessions, while this year’s finished second in scoring allowed per possession, holding opponents to 100.2.
You can simply point to the switch of Tomic for Marcus Slaughter at center as the turning point for the emergence of Madrid as a legit prevention force. Tomic’s breakout season at Barcelona has prompted many to make fun of Laso. And it’s easy to understand why. Tomic was one of the most underwhelming, disappointing players in all of Europe under his tutelage and now he is a legit top flight big man under Pascual’s. However, it is mighty unfair not to remember that the commitment to defense Tomic is showing in Barcelona was never ever there in Madrid. Meanwhile, Laso now has in Slaughter a self-motivated hustle guy whose motor is always on. Forget about how Slaughter’s athleticism – his ability to sprint down the court on breaks and to play above the rim – fits the offense better. It’s his reliability to impact their defense that has made much more of a difference.
Slaughter is one outstanding pick-and-roll defender. He has mastered the concept of defending with his feet, containing dribble penetration off a high screen by flashing but without overplaying and leaving himself exposed to getting beaten off the dribble, stepping back to prioritize paint protection but without backpedaling and providing a path to the rim by the driver. Slaughter is just terrific. His prolificacy not only defending that set but also in general help-defense permits aggressive on-ball defenders like Sergio Llull and Don Draper to make a bigger impact. Real Madrid has allowed only 95.4 points per 100 possessions in the Euroleague in the 518 minutes Slaughter has been on the court. Without him, they defend 9.2 points per 100 possessions worst. Madrid has allowed the fewest shots and scores at the rim among all Final Four participants.
Real Madrid has in Carlos Suárez a player capable of exploring Barcelona’s deficiency defending the post with perimeter players. In fact, when Messina was still the head coach, the game plan was to go at Barça through the post, with Suárez as one of the go-to guys. Laso does not emphasize post play as much but calling a couple of touches for Suárez in the block early when Ingles is matched up on him should be discussed. With Martynas Pocius playing very little this year, either because he is hurt or because Laso has simply fell out of love with him, Rudy Fernandez has doubled as Suárez’s backup at small forward, playing 362 Euroleague minutes at the position. It has been a great way to have Fernandez out there more, as his high profile backup at two-guard, Jaycee Carroll, demands big minutes as well. Most of the year, Laso has gone to three-guard sets in Suárez’s absence. Early, he worked Don Draper into the rotation (shifting Sergio Llull to shooting guard) but lately (including in the game of eight days ago), Laso has extended the minutes of lineups that feature both Carroll and Fernandez on the wings. Those project to be killers for Barça.
Victor Sada was essentially dropped out of the rotation in the last three games of the series against Panathinaikos but his defensive pedigree might be needed here. Ingles is a good isolation defender and should guard Fernandez, besides the fact he doesn’t have a lot of speed to chase Carroll around those baseline screens. Having Navarro on the ball (regardless of Llull or Rodriguez) is not all that terrible idea considering the alternative is him spending too much energy running after Carroll on defense and also that he doesn't have any shot at all, as we have the last two years of evidence. And despite the fact they don’t depend on his shot creation as much, Barça still needs Navarro out there about 31 minutes because he is their top shooter. Huertas is a reckless defender who could do well on Llull with energy matching energy (or recklessness matching recklessness) but might get broken down by Rodriguez. God has size to bother Rodriguez but if the game becomes transition oriented or if Real Madrid can get into a rhythm of early offense, Pascual might turn to Sada for rescue.
Upfront, it will be a battle between size/force and finesse. Laso has started Mirza Begic at center most of the year, but considering this is a one-game elimination setting, he should reconsider. Tomic has a length advantage and Jawai a size advantage over Slaughter but the American center provides much better pick-and-roll coverage than the Slovenian and, as mentioned previously, Barça doesn't go to the post all that much anymore, so Begic's main skill is neutralized. One play Barcelona ran with both Tomic and Jawai last week was a flash by the big, cutting from low post to low post and quickly turning around with a baby-hook after the catch. Slaughter even provides a better chance of defending that play because of his shot blocking. On the other end, Barça will desperately need an active performance from Lorbek, especially if CJ Wallace is unavailable due to the elbow injury. Felipe Reyes can change games with his offensive rebounding and Nikola Mirotic has the edge in quickness and athleticism. If Wallace in fact misses the game, there is a chance Pascual rolls with a lineup featuring both Tomic and Jawai when Lorbek subs out rather than putting young Marko Todorovic out there. Pascual flirted with the idea in the game of eight days ago; for just a couple of possessions but it was the first time I saw him do it. Or we might just see Barcelona go zone for a whole half again. My money is on this last one. The more you force Llull into decisions late in the shot clock, the best are your chances of getting a stop.
I believe Madrid is the favorite to advance, as they are more athletic and shoot better but it is not as if Barcelona has struggled to hang out with them these last two years. Pretty much every time these two meet, the game is close at the start of the fourth quarter and I don't expect it to be different here.
Meanwhile, the epic rematch of last year's championship game features two teams in a similar position they entered last season's Final Four in, though a lot has changed. CSKA Moscow got to Istanbul a year ago as the most dominant force in European ball. Andrei Kirilenko hung around during the NBA lockout and led the Russian powerhouse to 19 wins in 22 games. But all everyone saw in the end was the team blowing a 19-point lead with 12 minutes remaining, letting slide what would have been the club's seventh major European title, and head-coach Jonas Kazlauskas was let go. Old friend Ettore Messina returned – after three years spent coaching Real Madrid and assist-coaching Mike Brown with the Lakers – and he had to rebuild half-the-team as Kirilenko returned to the NBA, Alexey Shved left with him, Darjus Lavrinovic went back home, Jamont Gordon moved to Turkey and Ramunas Siskauskas retired.
Messina took the opportunity with the changes in personnel to also restructure the way the team plays. A lot of what CSKA did last year relied on post-ups for Nenad Krstic, Kirilenko's prolificacy in transition and the offensive glass and Milos Teodosic's taking a lot of chances on the pick-and-roll, which led to high assist totals but also a lot of turnovers. Under Messina, it took some time but CSKA evolved into the most complete offense in the continent. And to think that they almost stumbled on it, as it took injuries to Zoran Erceg and Andrey Vorontsevich for Messina to shift Viktor Khryapa to stretch-four. Simon Jatsch wrote here how the multi-dimensionality of their pick-and-roll makes it borderline impossible to contain it. On top of it, CSKA can run with Sonny Weems and Sasha Kaun, isolate Weems or post-up Krstic. CSKA leads the Euroleague in scoring per possession, averaging 112.6 points per 100 possessions.
For most of the season, they played elite defense as well, starting the quarterfinals ranked second in scoring allowed per possession and fifth in opponents' effective shooting. However, Caja Laboral tested the versatility of the Russians on defense, as Chapu Nocioni and Nemanja Bjelica created problems all over the court with the multi-dimensionality of their skill-sets. Baskonia averaged a stratospheric 121.3 points per 100 possessions in the series. Because Caja Laboral had no shot of stopping CSKA on the other end and some “controversial” officiating at the end of game four, Moscow advanced but Baskonia had a shot of forcing game five when it looked like CSKA was going to run them over after the first couple of games. That's a head-scratcher.
Olympiacos' stretch-fours aren't as versatile as Caja Laboral's. Georgios Printenzis and Pero Antic can hit the outside shot but aren't off the dribble players and don't have the same passing skills as Bjelica and Nocioni. Georgios Bartzokas should at least consider smaller lineups featuring Kostas Papanikolaou or Stratos Perperoglou at stretch-four, especially if Kyle Hines isn't health enough to log 25 minutes or more. Baskonia really exposed that weakness on CSKA and that's a path worth taking a look.
I'm not confident this Olympiacos' team is quite as capable as last year's, though. It's been a very uneven season for the defending champions. They lost two of the first three in the initial group stages, then won seven straight. Lost three of the first four in the top 16, then won eight of the next 10. Beat Anadolu Efes handily in the first two games of their quarterfinal series, then blew the lead and needed a second-half comeback to advance on game five. Last season's squad got hot at the right time, behind Vassilis Spanoulis' prolificacy, Papanikolaou's development and a stingy defense that evolved into elite status when Hines and Joey Dorsey were fully incorporated by the time the series against Montepaschi Siena rolled around. With Dorsey and Dusan Ivkovic gone and Hines dealing with nagging injuries all season, Olympiacos' defense hasn't been quite as good this campaign. They arrive at the Final Four allowing 102.8 points per 100 possessions and as the team that permitted the most points at the rim among Final Four participants. Put simply, Josh Powell and Giorgi Shermadini just aren't as good as Dorsey was those last couple months last season. Things are looking up as Acie Law, IV did tremendous work shutting down Jordan Farmar in the quarterfinals and Olympiacos allowed the second fewest points per possession in the round but Hines' health status is of significant importance. He was at one point rulled out of game five before giving it a go and playing 18 minutes. If Hines can't stay on the floor longer than that, it's hard to see how Olympiacos beats CSKA Moscow without another historic comeback.
Khryapa's combination of size, height and skill make him such a tough match-up but I believe pure athleticism is the best defense against him. Olympiacos could go with Papanikolaou on him and have Hines at center, especially with Kaun in the game, to guard the four-five pick-and-roll. It gets a bit trickier with Krstic, for whom CSKA Moscow can run some post-ups to take advantage of the size edge. But Messina has kind of fell out of love with Krstic in the second half of the season and it wouldn't surprise me if he is on the short end of the minute-split with Kaun at center. CSKA doesn't generate a whole lot of second chances, so the height disadvantage shouldn't hurt the Greeks on the boards.
Let's say a perfect world in which Olympiacos manages to neutralize CSKA's pick-and-roll well enough exists with Law, IV checking Teodosic and an athletic combination working around Khryapa. Then Moscow still has Weems to go to and that could be a problem. Olympiacos has signed Doron Perkins mid-season but he hasn't played all that much. Athletically-speaking, it is a no-brainer to have Perkins out there on Weems rather than Spanoulis, Martynas Gecevicius or Dimitrios Katsivelis. It's unclear Bartzokas trusts Perkins has absorbed all of the team's defensive principles by now, though. Papanikolaou will likely start on Weems and draw the assignment on the big lineups but if Bartzokas does go small at some point, Weems might be a escape valve for CSKA's offense. That's why they are just so hard to defend; there is just too many holes for a defense to try plugging.
On the other end, I'm curious to see what CSKA Moscow's approach regarding Spanoulis is going to be. Messina mostly started the big lineup with Weems and Khryapa on the wings and Erceg and Kaun upfront in the series against Caja Laboral. Who is he going to have checking Spanoulis early? We saw last year with Lorbek that having Spanoulis running at you all game long (Barça switches on pick-and-rolls) can affect your production on offense, so maybe Khryapa shouldn't be in consideration. Weems is no shut down defender. Dionte Christmas is not on the team anymore. Aaron Jackson can run with Spanoulis but with him on the court, CSKA has allowed 105 points per 100 possessions. Maybe an option should be try bothering Spanoulis with Theo Papaloukas' size but it's not clear whether the legend can still keep people in front of him or even direct them to the help anymore.
Though Olympiacos will be difficult for CSKA Moscow to guard too, I believe the Russian powerhouse is the favorite to advance to the championship game. Their offense is borderline uncontainable. Rod Higgins took a look at the variety of sets they run here. All of that said, after what took place last year, we are not supposed to discount Olympiacos anymore.
Editor's Note: All statistical data on this post was researched at in-the-game.org, one phenomenal website dedicated to keeping track of advanced statistics in the EuroLeague. Simon Jatsch does an amazing job and I hope he knows how much his work is appreciated.
Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.
We are officially within a week of the Euroleague Final Four, with this year’s edition taking place in London. The 2013 Final Four will feature three of the four teams that made it to Istanbul in 2012, including a rematch of the epic championship game between CSKA Moscow and Olympiacos Piraeus as one of the semifinals. The other will be a renew of Spain’s biggest rivalry as Real Madrid and Regal FC Barcelona go at it for the fourth time this season, none more important than this one.
Barcelona has won 25 of their 29 games in the Euroleague, but does not get to London as the heavy favorites to win their second title in the last five seasons. Barça has once more played the most dominant defense in European basketball, holding opponents to 94.3 points per 100 possessions, which was quite surprising considering linchpins to the team’s elite stand in prevention in years past such as Boniface N’Dong, Kosta Perovic and Fran Vázquez were let go last summer so more offensive talent in the form of Ante Tomic and Nathan Jawai could be added.
Last year, Barcelona was too codependent of Juan Carlos Navarro and Erazem Lorbek to score and when the former started dealing with plantar fasciitis late in the season and the latter chose a bad day to have a bad day, Barça just didn’t have enough against an Olympiacos’ defense that had emerged as one of the best in the continent on their run to the championship. Aside from adding more scoring pedigree with Tomic and Jawai and shot creation with God Jasikevicius, head-coach Xavi Pascual modernized the attack from a post-up heavy scheme with pick-and-rolls featuring mostly only Navarro and Lorbek to a more democratic perimeter oriented offense that makes better usage of Marcelinho Huertas’s presence and eased the dependence of Navarro and Lorbek. Barcelona arrives at the Final Four leading the league in scoring at the rim and ranking fifth in scoring per possession.
At this point, one might wonder that if Barça has played dominant ball on both sides of the court, why aren’t they the top favorites. The reasons are threefold; Pete Mickeal’s absence, some of the problems Panathinaikos exposed in the recent quarterfinal series and the fact that Real Madrid is a team built to beat Barcelona.
Mickeal was having one of the best seasons of his career at age 35. He was the team’s most impactful defender (Barça allowed just 92.3 points per 100 possessions with him in the lineup) and efficient perimeter scorer (ranking third in the team in scoring in the lane, only behind the centers). His absence has exposed the team’s lack of a true backup at his position. Joe Ingles acted as Navarro’s backup early in the season and was mostly out of favor before the series against Panathinaikos, in which he lost key playing time to Alex Abrines during games three and four before getting 31 minutes on the decisive game five. Abrines really played well just two or three times this year and is only an option at forward when the team goes zone. Xabi Rabaseda was hurt during the quarterfinals, just after he had finally put a string of some consistent performances together. Pascual has at times opted for three-guard sets featuring either of Huertas or Victor Sada at the point alongside God and Navarro, but Pascual has avoided going to those sets much (just 16 minutes in Euroleague play) due to the defensive deficiencies of all those guys but Sada.
Panathinaikos exposed that without Mickeal Barça is pretty much unathletic and suffers with speed and physicality. Jonas Maciulus posted Joe Ingles with ease, and so did Roko Ukic any of the guards. When healthy for the first portion of that series, James Gist had a big impact drawing Lorbek and CJ Wallace into the perimeter and then attacking closeouts. Despite having more talent, Barça only got away from PAO in the last two games when Pascual inserted a zone defense for extended periods of time. Over the last two years, since Pablo Laso has taken over, Real Madrid has focused on adding more athletic types, exactly because of Barcelona.
Under Ettore Messina and Emanuel Molin, Barça dominated Real Madrid but under Laso, things started to change some. Last season, Madrid ran over Barça in the King’s Cup and split the Spanish ACB regular-season meetings. They were the favorites over their arch-rivals in the ACB Finals, but the implosion in the Euroleague top 16 carried over to the domestic side and Madrid lost the championship to Barcelona on gave five. This season, Madrid won the preseason Superleague, lost in the King’s Cup (in a two-overtime thriller) and the teams once more split the Spanish ACB regular-season meetings, each winning at home, with Madrid’s victory happening eight days ago.
Real Madrid has played arguably the most crowd pleasing basketball in Europe, alongside CSKA Moscow. Madrid has won 20 of 27 games in the Euroleague and 28 of 32 games in the Spanish ACB. It just ran over a very solid Maccabi Tel Aviv squad to earn a ticket to London. Just like last season, this year’s squad is a scoring machine, finishing third in scoring per possession, averaging 111.2 points per 100 possessions in continental play. What makes this team a legit championship contender, while the previous one failed to make it out of the top 16, is the significant improvement on defense. Last year’s team allowed 103.1 points per 100 possessions, while this year’s finished second in scoring allowed per possession, holding opponents to 100.2.
You can simply point to the switch of Tomic for Marcus Slaughter at center as the turning point for the emergence of Madrid as a legit prevention force. Tomic’s breakout season at Barcelona has prompted many to make fun of Laso. And it’s easy to understand why. Tomic was one of the most underwhelming, disappointing players in all of Europe under his tutelage and now he is a legit top flight big man under Pascual’s. However, it is mighty unfair not to remember that the commitment to defense Tomic is showing in Barcelona was never ever there in Madrid. Meanwhile, Laso now has in Slaughter a self-motivated hustle guy whose motor is always on. Forget about how Slaughter’s athleticism – his ability to sprint down the court on breaks and to play above the rim – fits the offense better. It’s his reliability to impact their defense that has made much more of a difference.
Slaughter is one outstanding pick-and-roll defender. He has mastered the concept of defending with his feet, containing dribble penetration off a high screen by flashing but without overplaying and leaving himself exposed to getting beaten off the dribble, stepping back to prioritize paint protection but without backpedaling and providing a path to the rim by the driver. Slaughter is just terrific. His prolificacy not only defending that set but also in general help-defense permits aggressive on-ball defenders like Sergio Llull and Don Draper to make a bigger impact. Real Madrid has allowed only 95.4 points per 100 possessions in the Euroleague in the 518 minutes Slaughter has been on the court. Without him, they defend 9.2 points per 100 possessions worst. Madrid has allowed the fewest shots and scores at the rim among all Final Four participants.
Real Madrid has in Carlos Suárez a player capable of exploring Barcelona’s deficiency defending the post with perimeter players. In fact, when Messina was still the head coach, the game plan was to go at Barça through the post, with Suárez as one of the go-to guys. Laso does not emphasize post play as much but calling a couple of touches for Suárez in the block early when Ingles is matched up on him should be discussed. With Martynas Pocius playing very little this year, either because he is hurt or because Laso has simply fell out of love with him, Rudy Fernandez has doubled as Suárez’s backup at small forward, playing 362 Euroleague minutes at the position. It has been a great way to have Fernandez out there more, as his high profile backup at two-guard, Jaycee Carroll, demands big minutes as well. Most of the year, Laso has gone to three-guard sets in Suárez’s absence. Early, he worked Don Draper into the rotation (shifting Sergio Llull to shooting guard) but lately (including in the game of eight days ago), Laso has extended the minutes of lineups that feature both Carroll and Fernandez on the wings. Those project to be killers for Barça.
Victor Sada was essentially dropped out of the rotation in the last three games of the series against Panathinaikos but his defensive pedigree might be needed here. Ingles is a good isolation defender and should guard Fernandez, besides the fact he doesn’t have a lot of speed to chase Carroll around those baseline screens. Having Navarro on the ball (regardless of Llull or Rodriguez) is not all that terrible idea considering the alternative is him spending too much energy running after Carroll on defense and also that he doesn't have any shot at all, as we have the last two years of evidence. And despite the fact they don’t depend on his shot creation as much, Barça still needs Navarro out there about 31 minutes because he is their top shooter. Huertas is a reckless defender who could do well on Llull with energy matching energy (or recklessness matching recklessness) but might get broken down by Rodriguez. God has size to bother Rodriguez but if the game becomes transition oriented or if Real Madrid can get into a rhythm of early offense, Pascual might turn to Sada for rescue.
Upfront, it will be a battle between size/force and finesse. Laso has started Mirza Begic at center most of the year, but considering this is a one-game elimination setting, he should reconsider. Tomic has a length advantage and Jawai a size advantage over Slaughter but the American center provides much better pick-and-roll coverage than the Slovenian and, as mentioned previously, Barça doesn't go to the post all that much anymore, so Begic's main skill is neutralized. One play Barcelona ran with both Tomic and Jawai last week was a flash by the big, cutting from low post to low post and quickly turning around with a baby-hook after the catch. Slaughter even provides a better chance of defending that play because of his shot blocking. On the other end, Barça will desperately need an active performance from Lorbek, especially if CJ Wallace is unavailable due to the elbow injury. Felipe Reyes can change games with his offensive rebounding and Nikola Mirotic has the edge in quickness and athleticism. If Wallace in fact misses the game, there is a chance Pascual rolls with a lineup featuring both Tomic and Jawai when Lorbek subs out rather than putting young Marko Todorovic out there. Pascual flirted with the idea in the game of eight days ago; for just a couple of possessions but it was the first time I saw him do it. Or we might just see Barcelona go zone for a whole half again. My money is on this last one. The more you force Llull into decisions late in the shot clock, the best are your chances of getting a stop.
I believe Madrid is the favorite to advance, as they are more athletic and shoot better but it is not as if Barcelona has struggled to hang out with them these last two years. Pretty much every time these two meet, the game is close at the start of the fourth quarter and I don't expect it to be different here.
Meanwhile, the epic rematch of last year's championship game features two teams in a similar position they entered last season's Final Four in, though a lot has changed. CSKA Moscow got to Istanbul a year ago as the most dominant force in European ball. Andrei Kirilenko hung around during the NBA lockout and led the Russian powerhouse to 19 wins in 22 games. But all everyone saw in the end was the team blowing a 19-point lead with 12 minutes remaining, letting slide what would have been the club's seventh major European title, and head-coach Jonas Kazlauskas was let go. Old friend Ettore Messina returned – after three years spent coaching Real Madrid and assist-coaching Mike Brown with the Lakers – and he had to rebuild half-the-team as Kirilenko returned to the NBA, Alexey Shved left with him, Darjus Lavrinovic went back home, Jamont Gordon moved to Turkey and Ramunas Siskauskas retired.
Messina took the opportunity with the changes in personnel to also restructure the way the team plays. A lot of what CSKA did last year relied on post-ups for Nenad Krstic, Kirilenko's prolificacy in transition and the offensive glass and Milos Teodosic's taking a lot of chances on the pick-and-roll, which led to high assist totals but also a lot of turnovers. Under Messina, it took some time but CSKA evolved into the most complete offense in the continent. And to think that they almost stumbled on it, as it took injuries to Zoran Erceg and Andrey Vorontsevich for Messina to shift Viktor Khryapa to stretch-four. Simon Jatsch wrote here how the multi-dimensionality of their pick-and-roll makes it borderline impossible to contain it. On top of it, CSKA can run with Sonny Weems and Sasha Kaun, isolate Weems or post-up Krstic. CSKA leads the Euroleague in scoring per possession, averaging 112.6 points per 100 possessions.
For most of the season, they played elite defense as well, starting the quarterfinals ranked second in scoring allowed per possession and fifth in opponents' effective shooting. However, Caja Laboral tested the versatility of the Russians on defense, as Chapu Nocioni and Nemanja Bjelica created problems all over the court with the multi-dimensionality of their skill-sets. Baskonia averaged a stratospheric 121.3 points per 100 possessions in the series. Because Caja Laboral had no shot of stopping CSKA on the other end and some “controversial” officiating at the end of game four, Moscow advanced but Baskonia had a shot of forcing game five when it looked like CSKA was going to run them over after the first couple of games. That's a head-scratcher.
Olympiacos' stretch-fours aren't as versatile as Caja Laboral's. Georgios Printenzis and Pero Antic can hit the outside shot but aren't off the dribble players and don't have the same passing skills as Bjelica and Nocioni. Georgios Bartzokas should at least consider smaller lineups featuring Kostas Papanikolaou or Stratos Perperoglou at stretch-four, especially if Kyle Hines isn't health enough to log 25 minutes or more. Baskonia really exposed that weakness on CSKA and that's a path worth taking a look.
I'm not confident this Olympiacos' team is quite as capable as last year's, though. It's been a very uneven season for the defending champions. They lost two of the first three in the initial group stages, then won seven straight. Lost three of the first four in the top 16, then won eight of the next 10. Beat Anadolu Efes handily in the first two games of their quarterfinal series, then blew the lead and needed a second-half comeback to advance on game five. Last season's squad got hot at the right time, behind Vassilis Spanoulis' prolificacy, Papanikolaou's development and a stingy defense that evolved into elite status when Hines and Joey Dorsey were fully incorporated by the time the series against Montepaschi Siena rolled around. With Dorsey and Dusan Ivkovic gone and Hines dealing with nagging injuries all season, Olympiacos' defense hasn't been quite as good this campaign. They arrive at the Final Four allowing 102.8 points per 100 possessions and as the team that permitted the most points at the rim among Final Four participants. Put simply, Josh Powell and Giorgi Shermadini just aren't as good as Dorsey was those last couple months last season. Things are looking up as Acie Law, IV did tremendous work shutting down Jordan Farmar in the quarterfinals and Olympiacos allowed the second fewest points per possession in the round but Hines' health status is of significant importance. He was at one point rulled out of game five before giving it a go and playing 18 minutes. If Hines can't stay on the floor longer than that, it's hard to see how Olympiacos beats CSKA Moscow without another historic comeback.
Khryapa's combination of size, height and skill make him such a tough match-up but I believe pure athleticism is the best defense against him. Olympiacos could go with Papanikolaou on him and have Hines at center, especially with Kaun in the game, to guard the four-five pick-and-roll. It gets a bit trickier with Krstic, for whom CSKA Moscow can run some post-ups to take advantage of the size edge. But Messina has kind of fell out of love with Krstic in the second half of the season and it wouldn't surprise me if he is on the short end of the minute-split with Kaun at center. CSKA doesn't generate a whole lot of second chances, so the height disadvantage shouldn't hurt the Greeks on the boards.
Let's say a perfect world in which Olympiacos manages to neutralize CSKA's pick-and-roll well enough exists with Law, IV checking Teodosic and an athletic combination working around Khryapa. Then Moscow still has Weems to go to and that could be a problem. Olympiacos has signed Doron Perkins mid-season but he hasn't played all that much. Athletically-speaking, it is a no-brainer to have Perkins out there on Weems rather than Spanoulis, Martynas Gecevicius or Dimitrios Katsivelis. It's unclear Bartzokas trusts Perkins has absorbed all of the team's defensive principles by now, though. Papanikolaou will likely start on Weems and draw the assignment on the big lineups but if Bartzokas does go small at some point, Weems might be a escape valve for CSKA's offense. That's why they are just so hard to defend; there is just too many holes for a defense to try plugging.
On the other end, I'm curious to see what CSKA Moscow's approach regarding Spanoulis is going to be. Messina mostly started the big lineup with Weems and Khryapa on the wings and Erceg and Kaun upfront in the series against Caja Laboral. Who is he going to have checking Spanoulis early? We saw last year with Lorbek that having Spanoulis running at you all game long (Barça switches on pick-and-rolls) can affect your production on offense, so maybe Khryapa shouldn't be in consideration. Weems is no shut down defender. Dionte Christmas is not on the team anymore. Aaron Jackson can run with Spanoulis but with him on the court, CSKA has allowed 105 points per 100 possessions. Maybe an option should be try bothering Spanoulis with Theo Papaloukas' size but it's not clear whether the legend can still keep people in front of him or even direct them to the help anymore.
Though Olympiacos will be difficult for CSKA Moscow to guard too, I believe the Russian powerhouse is the favorite to advance to the championship game. Their offense is borderline uncontainable. Rod Higgins took a look at the variety of sets they run here. All of that said, after what took place last year, we are not supposed to discount Olympiacos anymore.
Editor's Note: All statistical data on this post was researched at in-the-game.org, one phenomenal website dedicated to keeping track of advanced statistics in the EuroLeague. Simon Jatsch does an amazing job and I hope he knows how much his work is appreciated.
Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.
Lots of Decisions for the Bucks to Make
By Rafael Uehara
After getting swept by the Heat in the first round, the Bucks can turn their attention to the many decisions they face this upcoming offseason. Franchise linchpin Brandon Jennings is up for restricted free agency and Monta Ellis has a player option that he is very likely to exercise to become an unrestricted free agent. Except for a couple of weeks there early in Jim Boylan’s tenure, the combination of Jennings and Ellis has mostly not worked. And now general-manager John Hammond (who got his extension at midseason) must decide between retaining both, either or neither.
Jennings is a quite good shooter off the dribble but struggles to finish at the rim (shooting 49.2% at the basket this season, according to basketball-reference). He recorded 156 more assists this year than the one before but outside of those couple of weeks he looked like the second coming of Steve Nash, the improvement in his playmaking wasn’t all that much noticeable really. Meanwhile, Ellis is what he is at this point of his career; a gunner capable of hitting big men in stride on some sweet pick-and-rolls but who will rather look for his shot on pretty much every touch, even when it’s misguided, with the result being a 1.09 point per shot average.
Even with LARRY SANDERS! behind them, the combo Jennings-Ellis just severely exposed the Bucks defensively. According to NBA.com/Stats/, in the 2295 minutes the duo shared the court this season (most of any combination of two Milwaukee players), the Bucks allowed an average of 104.3 points per 100 possessions, a mark that would rank bottom 10 among teams. And there wasn’t much payoff on offense, as lineups featuring the two were held to 101.5 points per 100 possessions, also a would-be bottom 10 ranking. 2295 minutes (even more if you choose to factor in the minutes after Ellis arrived from Golden State midway through the lockout-shortened season) should be enough data to assess it’s time for the Bucks to move on from the Jennings-Ellis experiment.
Who to keep, if any, is a more complex argument, depending on multiple variables. Jennings is younger and could still develop into a disciplined lead at the point, maintaining potential for some explosive random scoring outputs depending upon the state of his jump-shot that particular day. Ellis isn’t all that old either (2012-13 was his age 27 season) but after eight years in the league, it’s hard to see him taking his game to the next level in a starring role. Ellis has always been more suited to be Jason Terry than Dwyane Wade and the sooner he realizes this, the most he can accomplish in his career. But if he re-signs with the Bucks, it’s because he took the path of the most shots available.
Considering Scott Skiles was never much of a fan of the Jennings-Ellis experiment, one assumes Hammond sees no problem pushing things over his coach, so he might make decisions on Jennings and Ellis before hiring a new coach, as the team confirmed Wednesday Boylan will not return for next season. Outside of sitting down JJ Redick (for whom the front office gave up Tobias Harris, so they could have Redick for a mere couple of months) in the postseason, Boylan didn’t do anything absurd once he took over for Skiles but didn’t maximize the talent of the roster either. The only shot the Bucks had to push the Heat was playing their top three outside shooters (Redick, Mike Dunleavy, Jr. and Ersan Ilyasova) together for long minutes, but Boylan never took a look at that route.
The Bucks could have as little as $29.5 million on the books for next season, discounting Ellis, Jennings and Gustavo Ayon. Even bringing one of the guards at a healthy number around $10 million a year would maintain significant cap flexibility in the rebuilding of the team. And I am of the belief that the team needs to be rebuilt. I believe that if Boylan had played Redick and Dunleavy, Jr. together more the Bucks had a better shot of bothering the Heat the most simply because of the chance they could get red hot but Milwaukee isn't going anywhere with a wing rotation of Redick, Dunleavy, Jr., Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Marquis Daniels. Except for Daniels, those are all good players but the combination of them results in too many one-way players.
LARRY SANDERS! Evolved into an elite interior defender – the very best in the league, according to Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry – and after an awful first month to the season Ilyasova bounced back to the same performance that earned him a $40-million extension last summer. In extended run over the last five games of the season, John Henson showed that the potential to be become a disruptive interior defender is still there, though so is the need for him to gain more upper-body strength. And Epke Udoh is under contract for one more season. So, the Bucks are pretty much set upfront, and should focus all the resources on retooling the perimeter.
This is not a strong draft class but Milwaukee will have some interesting possibilities to add a wing with the 15th pick. Sergey Karasev ranked fourth in the VTB United league in scoring and averaged 15.73 points per game in the Eurocup, ranking just outside the top 15. Archie Goodwin was part of a disappointing Kentucky squad and shot just 26.6% from three-point range in his lone college season but his combination of size and athleticism make him a high profile prospect for this class's standards. Dario Saric is a historic figure among those that follow European youth competitions but is still under contract without an NBA out with Cibona Zagreb for another year and won't come over right away. And there is just too much unknown with Giannis Adetokunbo, though he is the prototype workout player, who will likely rise into lottery status once he comes over to show his athleticism and skill-set on the combine and private sessions with teams. In the second round, guys like Micheal Snaer, Deshaun Thomas and Tim Hardaway, Jr. should be targeted.
This is also not a strong free agent class. Most of the names on the pool (Kyle Korver, Anthony Morrow, Marco Belinelli, Corey Brewer, Tony Allen, Al Farouq Aminu, Ronnie Brewer) aren't all the that much of an improvement over what Bucks already have, some are risky gambles (Tyreke Evans, OJ Mayo, Gerald Hendersen, Jr.) and a few (Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala, Andrei Kirilenko) might only choose to move to Milwaukee if the pay is exorbitant. Jarrett Jack and Jose Calderon would be terrific fits for the 'backup point-guard who play starter's minutes' role, but those guys might be looking to start full time and earn around $8 million a year.
At coach, the obvious monster hire would be Stan Van Gundy. He is a difference maker who already proved in Orlando he can take the bad signings of a bad general-manager and make something work out of them. With LARRY SANDERS! anchoring the unit, Van Gundy could coach the Bucks into elite form on defense and with the right additions of talent to the offense as Stan Van will for sure modernize the attack, he could soon have them exactly where he had the Magic upon his departure, which would be step forward for ever-mediocre Bucks. Rumors are Stan Van might sit out another year, though. That's a bummer. I'm sure there is good choice within the pool of Nate McMillan, Mike Malone, Brian Shaw and a couple of other high profile assistant coaches waiting on the wings to be the next Tom Thibodeau. But apparently, Kelvin Sampson is a front runner to get the gig, so there is that.
It's a big summer for the Bucks. They have a lot of decisions to make. Many rumors have this franchise as the next to leverage relocation for a new arena deal. According to ESPN.com, Milwaukee ranked 27th in attendance. If the results on the court don't change, it is possible that region won't fight to keep the team as passionately as Sacramento just did for the Kings. So, there is a lot on Hammond's plate this upcoming offseason.
Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.
After getting swept by the Heat in the first round, the Bucks can turn their attention to the many decisions they face this upcoming offseason. Franchise linchpin Brandon Jennings is up for restricted free agency and Monta Ellis has a player option that he is very likely to exercise to become an unrestricted free agent. Except for a couple of weeks there early in Jim Boylan’s tenure, the combination of Jennings and Ellis has mostly not worked. And now general-manager John Hammond (who got his extension at midseason) must decide between retaining both, either or neither.
Jennings is a quite good shooter off the dribble but struggles to finish at the rim (shooting 49.2% at the basket this season, according to basketball-reference). He recorded 156 more assists this year than the one before but outside of those couple of weeks he looked like the second coming of Steve Nash, the improvement in his playmaking wasn’t all that much noticeable really. Meanwhile, Ellis is what he is at this point of his career; a gunner capable of hitting big men in stride on some sweet pick-and-rolls but who will rather look for his shot on pretty much every touch, even when it’s misguided, with the result being a 1.09 point per shot average.
Even with LARRY SANDERS! behind them, the combo Jennings-Ellis just severely exposed the Bucks defensively. According to NBA.com/Stats/, in the 2295 minutes the duo shared the court this season (most of any combination of two Milwaukee players), the Bucks allowed an average of 104.3 points per 100 possessions, a mark that would rank bottom 10 among teams. And there wasn’t much payoff on offense, as lineups featuring the two were held to 101.5 points per 100 possessions, also a would-be bottom 10 ranking. 2295 minutes (even more if you choose to factor in the minutes after Ellis arrived from Golden State midway through the lockout-shortened season) should be enough data to assess it’s time for the Bucks to move on from the Jennings-Ellis experiment.
Who to keep, if any, is a more complex argument, depending on multiple variables. Jennings is younger and could still develop into a disciplined lead at the point, maintaining potential for some explosive random scoring outputs depending upon the state of his jump-shot that particular day. Ellis isn’t all that old either (2012-13 was his age 27 season) but after eight years in the league, it’s hard to see him taking his game to the next level in a starring role. Ellis has always been more suited to be Jason Terry than Dwyane Wade and the sooner he realizes this, the most he can accomplish in his career. But if he re-signs with the Bucks, it’s because he took the path of the most shots available.
Considering Scott Skiles was never much of a fan of the Jennings-Ellis experiment, one assumes Hammond sees no problem pushing things over his coach, so he might make decisions on Jennings and Ellis before hiring a new coach, as the team confirmed Wednesday Boylan will not return for next season. Outside of sitting down JJ Redick (for whom the front office gave up Tobias Harris, so they could have Redick for a mere couple of months) in the postseason, Boylan didn’t do anything absurd once he took over for Skiles but didn’t maximize the talent of the roster either. The only shot the Bucks had to push the Heat was playing their top three outside shooters (Redick, Mike Dunleavy, Jr. and Ersan Ilyasova) together for long minutes, but Boylan never took a look at that route.
The Bucks could have as little as $29.5 million on the books for next season, discounting Ellis, Jennings and Gustavo Ayon. Even bringing one of the guards at a healthy number around $10 million a year would maintain significant cap flexibility in the rebuilding of the team. And I am of the belief that the team needs to be rebuilt. I believe that if Boylan had played Redick and Dunleavy, Jr. together more the Bucks had a better shot of bothering the Heat the most simply because of the chance they could get red hot but Milwaukee isn't going anywhere with a wing rotation of Redick, Dunleavy, Jr., Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Marquis Daniels. Except for Daniels, those are all good players but the combination of them results in too many one-way players.
LARRY SANDERS! Evolved into an elite interior defender – the very best in the league, according to Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry – and after an awful first month to the season Ilyasova bounced back to the same performance that earned him a $40-million extension last summer. In extended run over the last five games of the season, John Henson showed that the potential to be become a disruptive interior defender is still there, though so is the need for him to gain more upper-body strength. And Epke Udoh is under contract for one more season. So, the Bucks are pretty much set upfront, and should focus all the resources on retooling the perimeter.
This is not a strong draft class but Milwaukee will have some interesting possibilities to add a wing with the 15th pick. Sergey Karasev ranked fourth in the VTB United league in scoring and averaged 15.73 points per game in the Eurocup, ranking just outside the top 15. Archie Goodwin was part of a disappointing Kentucky squad and shot just 26.6% from three-point range in his lone college season but his combination of size and athleticism make him a high profile prospect for this class's standards. Dario Saric is a historic figure among those that follow European youth competitions but is still under contract without an NBA out with Cibona Zagreb for another year and won't come over right away. And there is just too much unknown with Giannis Adetokunbo, though he is the prototype workout player, who will likely rise into lottery status once he comes over to show his athleticism and skill-set on the combine and private sessions with teams. In the second round, guys like Micheal Snaer, Deshaun Thomas and Tim Hardaway, Jr. should be targeted.
This is also not a strong free agent class. Most of the names on the pool (Kyle Korver, Anthony Morrow, Marco Belinelli, Corey Brewer, Tony Allen, Al Farouq Aminu, Ronnie Brewer) aren't all the that much of an improvement over what Bucks already have, some are risky gambles (Tyreke Evans, OJ Mayo, Gerald Hendersen, Jr.) and a few (Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala, Andrei Kirilenko) might only choose to move to Milwaukee if the pay is exorbitant. Jarrett Jack and Jose Calderon would be terrific fits for the 'backup point-guard who play starter's minutes' role, but those guys might be looking to start full time and earn around $8 million a year.
At coach, the obvious monster hire would be Stan Van Gundy. He is a difference maker who already proved in Orlando he can take the bad signings of a bad general-manager and make something work out of them. With LARRY SANDERS! anchoring the unit, Van Gundy could coach the Bucks into elite form on defense and with the right additions of talent to the offense as Stan Van will for sure modernize the attack, he could soon have them exactly where he had the Magic upon his departure, which would be step forward for ever-mediocre Bucks. Rumors are Stan Van might sit out another year, though. That's a bummer. I'm sure there is good choice within the pool of Nate McMillan, Mike Malone, Brian Shaw and a couple of other high profile assistant coaches waiting on the wings to be the next Tom Thibodeau. But apparently, Kelvin Sampson is a front runner to get the gig, so there is that.
It's a big summer for the Bucks. They have a lot of decisions to make. Many rumors have this franchise as the next to leverage relocation for a new arena deal. According to ESPN.com, Milwaukee ranked 27th in attendance. If the results on the court don't change, it is possible that region won't fight to keep the team as passionately as Sacramento just did for the Kings. So, there is a lot on Hammond's plate this upcoming offseason.
Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.
Challenging Offseason Ahead for the Lakers
By Rafael Uehara
When the Lakers signed Steve Nash and traded for Dwight Howard last summer, common sense was they had reestablished themselves as legit championship contenders again, after getting swept by the Mavericks and losing to the Thunder in five in back-to-back years. And the theory was strong. It was expected Nash would slow down at 38 years old, but his ability to play off the ball with his fantastic shooting still made him the best backcourt teammate Kobe Bryant ever played with. And Howard was the one big man projected capable to make up for the defensive deficiencies of those in front of him.
Things didn’t go as expected, though, and this adventurous, tumultuous season unceremoniously ended on Sunday as the Spurs swept them in the first round of the postseason. I’m of the opinion that no one is to blame for the debacle of a year this was for the Lakers. Whether they had enough to insert themselves in the class of the Heat, Spurs and Thunder is hard to know now. They for sure had enough to do a lot better, if not for all the injuries that at one point or another took one of the core rotation players out of the lineup.
It all started when Howard returned too soon and in no moment early in the season looked like his former self. In the first seven years of his professional career, Howard missed a grant total of seven games. Up until midway through last season, Howard had proven to be extremely durable throughout his entire career. So, it didn’t look ludicrous when he actually made it back for opening night after back surgery sidelined him really late last season, forcing him to miss the last 12 games and the postseason. Struggling to be comfortable on the court, Howard could not impact the team’s defense as needed.
Then Nash broke his foot in the second game of the season in Portland. But Howard at half-speed and no Nash didn’t keep management from firing Mike Brown after four losses in the first five games. Shortly thereafter Pau Gasol started dealing with hamstring and foot problems of his own, Steve Blake and Jordan Hill were sidelined with very serious injuries, Mike D’Antoni was hired days after undergoing surgery himself, then as the push for the postseason became realistic Ron Artest hurt his knee and then Bryant blew his Achilles in the third to last game of the season. When you stop to think about it, how incompetent were the Jazz that they couldn’t make the postseason over this cursed team?
Now that the season is finally over, the Lakers can start looking ahead and thinking over how to restructure this team, which won’t be easy. A lot of hard decisions need to be made; probably none more important than whether or not to re-sign Howard. That’s a no-brainer, in my opinion, as late in the season, Howard took major steps towards regaining his form from the glory days in Orlando. With a full offseason to recover - one that is starting earlier than he has grown accustomed to – Howard should be back to where he was before back surgery. The Lakers had one of the five best records in the league post-All Star break and that was the case because their defense improved significantly as Howard impacted more and more on each passing game.
Decisions on Bryant and Gasol come next. Personally, I don’t believe a question will come up on Bryant at all. He is the most recognizable Laker this side of Magic Johnson. And he is a crazy person, who is totally reckless about his self being if it means him being out there on the court as he attempts to either tie Jordan in titles or pass him in scoring, so there still is a chance – even though remote – he manages to return at some point next season. Technically, there should be a discussion, however. LA already has $79.6 million committed in salaries for next season and that’s without accounting for a cap charge linked to Howard. As we saw this season – when the payroll was at $99.8 million, the Lakers have no problem paying the luxury tax. The issue is that starting this summer the restrictions on personnel addition become harder to navigate for tax payers. Sign-and-trades are out of the picture and trades must be dollar-for-dollar. Amnestying Bryant and erasing his $30-million dollar cap hit would be blasphemy but also the one move that would provide them the most flexibility to restructure this roster that featured six of the top nine rotation players older than 32. Hard to see this being the route the front office takes, though.
A way more likely scenario is the Lakers amnestying Artest and trading Gasol. But that’s not without complications either. Gasol is scheduled to earn $19.2 million next season and it is challenging to make a trade featuring a player earning that much work. For good teams, likely already over the cap and possibly in tax territory, adding Gasol would probably tie them to the same restrictions that make it difficult for the Lakers to make improvements to their roster now. Also, not every owner can afford to spend nearly $100 million in salaries. Involving a bad team with plenty of cap space to absorb some bad salary has its challenges too as the Lakers already have multiple future first round picks slotted for Phoenix and Orlando, and that bad team has to send something sizeable to someone in return too. Can you imagine anyone willing to take on Tyrus Thomas, Hedo Turkoglu, Andris Biedrins, Gerald Wallace or Drew Gooden? What can the Lakers realistically get in return that moves the needle more than Gasol so it would make sense for them to carry any of those guys? My guess is Gasol returns and either finishes his contract or gets dealt in-season.
One would think Nash then becomes the team’s most attractive trading chip but he has two years and $18 million left on his deal. As feared, Nash was not as much of an ageless, health wonder once he got away from that magical medical and training staff they have in Phoenix. The broken foot was just a broken foot and could have easily happened there too. But one assumes that in Phoenix, Nash would not have needed medication for pregnant women and a wheel chair to nurse his bad back. Or maybe, he would, I’m not a doctor, what do I know… Nash’s historically great shooting remains a valuable skill he brings to the table, even when struggling with injuries, as he shot for 43.8% from three-point range this season, but at $9 million, he is one very expensive spot-up shooter who is becoming increasingly less likely to get to the basket on those pick-and-rolls and who exposes your defense an awful lot.
All of this is to say, the Lakers have a very challenging offseason ahead of them. I said the exact same thing last season, though, and Mitch Kupchak did that thing that Mitch Kupchak does, in which Mitch Kupchak somehow figures out a way to always make a meaningful addition, even as you think Mitch Kupchak is cornered. So, who knows, maybe we will see Kevin Love or Danny Granger or Eric Gordon in purple and gold next season… But considering the dynamic between Gasol and Howard started working really well at the end of the season, maybe just taking a mulligan should be the approach here. Just work harder on finding Nate Robinsons, James Whites, Chris Copelands, Kenyon Martins and Chris Andersens, hope for some better luck and then maybe you are in position to take advantage of an injury to an opponent. That’s how the Spurs just became favorites to make the Finals.
Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.
When the Lakers signed Steve Nash and traded for Dwight Howard last summer, common sense was they had reestablished themselves as legit championship contenders again, after getting swept by the Mavericks and losing to the Thunder in five in back-to-back years. And the theory was strong. It was expected Nash would slow down at 38 years old, but his ability to play off the ball with his fantastic shooting still made him the best backcourt teammate Kobe Bryant ever played with. And Howard was the one big man projected capable to make up for the defensive deficiencies of those in front of him.
Things didn’t go as expected, though, and this adventurous, tumultuous season unceremoniously ended on Sunday as the Spurs swept them in the first round of the postseason. I’m of the opinion that no one is to blame for the debacle of a year this was for the Lakers. Whether they had enough to insert themselves in the class of the Heat, Spurs and Thunder is hard to know now. They for sure had enough to do a lot better, if not for all the injuries that at one point or another took one of the core rotation players out of the lineup.
It all started when Howard returned too soon and in no moment early in the season looked like his former self. In the first seven years of his professional career, Howard missed a grant total of seven games. Up until midway through last season, Howard had proven to be extremely durable throughout his entire career. So, it didn’t look ludicrous when he actually made it back for opening night after back surgery sidelined him really late last season, forcing him to miss the last 12 games and the postseason. Struggling to be comfortable on the court, Howard could not impact the team’s defense as needed.
Then Nash broke his foot in the second game of the season in Portland. But Howard at half-speed and no Nash didn’t keep management from firing Mike Brown after four losses in the first five games. Shortly thereafter Pau Gasol started dealing with hamstring and foot problems of his own, Steve Blake and Jordan Hill were sidelined with very serious injuries, Mike D’Antoni was hired days after undergoing surgery himself, then as the push for the postseason became realistic Ron Artest hurt his knee and then Bryant blew his Achilles in the third to last game of the season. When you stop to think about it, how incompetent were the Jazz that they couldn’t make the postseason over this cursed team?
Now that the season is finally over, the Lakers can start looking ahead and thinking over how to restructure this team, which won’t be easy. A lot of hard decisions need to be made; probably none more important than whether or not to re-sign Howard. That’s a no-brainer, in my opinion, as late in the season, Howard took major steps towards regaining his form from the glory days in Orlando. With a full offseason to recover - one that is starting earlier than he has grown accustomed to – Howard should be back to where he was before back surgery. The Lakers had one of the five best records in the league post-All Star break and that was the case because their defense improved significantly as Howard impacted more and more on each passing game.
Decisions on Bryant and Gasol come next. Personally, I don’t believe a question will come up on Bryant at all. He is the most recognizable Laker this side of Magic Johnson. And he is a crazy person, who is totally reckless about his self being if it means him being out there on the court as he attempts to either tie Jordan in titles or pass him in scoring, so there still is a chance – even though remote – he manages to return at some point next season. Technically, there should be a discussion, however. LA already has $79.6 million committed in salaries for next season and that’s without accounting for a cap charge linked to Howard. As we saw this season – when the payroll was at $99.8 million, the Lakers have no problem paying the luxury tax. The issue is that starting this summer the restrictions on personnel addition become harder to navigate for tax payers. Sign-and-trades are out of the picture and trades must be dollar-for-dollar. Amnestying Bryant and erasing his $30-million dollar cap hit would be blasphemy but also the one move that would provide them the most flexibility to restructure this roster that featured six of the top nine rotation players older than 32. Hard to see this being the route the front office takes, though.
A way more likely scenario is the Lakers amnestying Artest and trading Gasol. But that’s not without complications either. Gasol is scheduled to earn $19.2 million next season and it is challenging to make a trade featuring a player earning that much work. For good teams, likely already over the cap and possibly in tax territory, adding Gasol would probably tie them to the same restrictions that make it difficult for the Lakers to make improvements to their roster now. Also, not every owner can afford to spend nearly $100 million in salaries. Involving a bad team with plenty of cap space to absorb some bad salary has its challenges too as the Lakers already have multiple future first round picks slotted for Phoenix and Orlando, and that bad team has to send something sizeable to someone in return too. Can you imagine anyone willing to take on Tyrus Thomas, Hedo Turkoglu, Andris Biedrins, Gerald Wallace or Drew Gooden? What can the Lakers realistically get in return that moves the needle more than Gasol so it would make sense for them to carry any of those guys? My guess is Gasol returns and either finishes his contract or gets dealt in-season.
One would think Nash then becomes the team’s most attractive trading chip but he has two years and $18 million left on his deal. As feared, Nash was not as much of an ageless, health wonder once he got away from that magical medical and training staff they have in Phoenix. The broken foot was just a broken foot and could have easily happened there too. But one assumes that in Phoenix, Nash would not have needed medication for pregnant women and a wheel chair to nurse his bad back. Or maybe, he would, I’m not a doctor, what do I know… Nash’s historically great shooting remains a valuable skill he brings to the table, even when struggling with injuries, as he shot for 43.8% from three-point range this season, but at $9 million, he is one very expensive spot-up shooter who is becoming increasingly less likely to get to the basket on those pick-and-rolls and who exposes your defense an awful lot.
All of this is to say, the Lakers have a very challenging offseason ahead of them. I said the exact same thing last season, though, and Mitch Kupchak did that thing that Mitch Kupchak does, in which Mitch Kupchak somehow figures out a way to always make a meaningful addition, even as you think Mitch Kupchak is cornered. So, who knows, maybe we will see Kevin Love or Danny Granger or Eric Gordon in purple and gold next season… But considering the dynamic between Gasol and Howard started working really well at the end of the season, maybe just taking a mulligan should be the approach here. Just work harder on finding Nate Robinsons, James Whites, Chris Copelands, Kenyon Martins and Chris Andersens, hope for some better luck and then maybe you are in position to take advantage of an injury to an opponent. That’s how the Spurs just became favorites to make the Finals.
Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.
Barcelona-Panathinaikos Game Five Preview
By Rafael Uehara
This has been an extremely close series throughout. The first three games were decided by a combined mere five points (not that it stopped some to affirm one coach has thoroughly outcoached the other); decided on missed free-throws, a step-back three-pointer that went in despite a large human all over the shooter and a non-shooter passing up two wide-open three-pointers. Only game four featured some disparity between the teams but that was mostly due to the fact Barcelona was more desperate as it needed to win to force Thursday’s decisive game five and one can argue Panathinaikos wasn’t as well prepared as it should.
Sometimes only in desperation we take the necessary measures. Barcelona defended in zone the vast majority of game four. It was the most effective way to hide Juan Carlos Navarro, maximize the reckless Marcelinho Huertas, have God Jasikevicius on the court with both Huertas and Navarro for longer stretches, secure long minutes for Erazem Lorbek and depend less on the offensive challenged Victor Sada and CJ Wallace, besides the struggling Joe Ingles.
Barcelona closed the top 16 ranked second in scoring efficiency, but struggled in the first three games, getting held under a point per possession. By limiting the exposure of the team’s worst defenders, Pascual was able to keep Huertas, Navarro and Lorbek on the court for over 30 minutes each on game four and Barça was finally able to dismantle Panathinaikos’ prolific defense for 70 points on 68 possessions, behind 24 points in the lane and 27 from three-point range.
Lorbek hasn’t played as well as last season mostly because his role within the offense has changed but he remains an integral component for the team’s success, as he is way more versatile (with his passing, ability to attack players of the same size off the dribble, shoot from anywhere and transform busted plays into quick post-ups) a scoring threat than Wallace, who becomes useless on offense when his spot-up outside shot isn’t falling - which has been the case in this series. So, it’s no coincidence that Barça played its best offense when Lorbek was on the court the most time.
It will be curious to see how Argiris Pedoulakis adjusts for game five. In theory, Sofoklis Schortsanitis would be the best outlet for scoring against a zone and Sofo got more run in the last two games than he did in the first two but that was still only a combined 26 minutes. Barça forced both Stephane Lasme and Kostas Tsartsaris into making questionable decisions (the former with mid-range jumpers, the latter turning it over all around the place) and counted with some opportune poor three-point shooting by PAO.
One interesting scenario Pedoulakis hasn’t explored much is playing a smaller lineup (featuring Roko Ukic, Dimitris Diamantidis, Michael Bramos, Jonas Maciulus, Lasme) for extended stretches. If James Gist is 100%, then there really is no need as he combines the outside shooting and athleticism to attack closeouts, besides the size not to give up anything on defense. But Gist looked limited by injury last Thursday and struggled to finish against the crowd in the Catalan lane. If that’s the case again, maybe Pedoulakis should consider going small in a high leverage situation. Barça doesn’t post up Lorbek all that much anymore and even if they did, Maciulus could do a good enough job holding ground until the double comes and there is enough speed around with Bramos and Lasme to rotate effectively.
We are most likely to see the opposite, though. Both teams went super big at one point in the third quarter of game four, when Wallace-Lorbek-Tomic matched up Gist-Tsartsaris-Lasme upfront. Tsartsaris made too many bad decisions inside the zone and it is hard to justify his presence when he is such a negative on offense but if Schortsanitis gets in foul trouble or flat out tired too soon, Tsartsaris might still get the nod as he can still hold the ball higher than Lasme and Gist and see over the top of the swarming wing defenders. Defensively, Gist did great defending the perimeter, overwhelming God with his physicality and size to such a point that Pascual had to take him out of the game. So, Pedolakis could still go there and set up some better screening by the bigs playing off the ball, so that Tsartsaris have some clearer passes to make. It’s just as important that the perimeter players go better than five-for-23 from three-point range too.
Diamantidis will for sure play better, after somehow going scoreless on 0-for-5 shooting from three-point range in 35 minutes. He did have six assists but Panathinaikos doesn’t have enough firepower to win without him scoring. Considering Ukic had four points on 2-for-11 shooting on 25 minutes, it’s easy to understand how they were down 16 at the end of the third quarter. Maciulus (on post-ups against smaller defenders) and Bramos (in transition and off the dribble) are capable of creating something for themselves on occasion but without backcourt production, there just isn’t enough volume to go by a defense like Barcelona’s.
Panathinaikos will be more prepared to counter Barcelona’s zone and is likely to have more success on offense. At Palau Blaugrana, Barcelona will not shoot 12 fewer free-throws than Panathinaikos as it was the case last Thursday on OAKA, but the difference in the game might still come to whether or not Ingles and Alex Abrines provide anything on offense. If the zone continues to be effective, even if not as much as game four, it will permit Pascual to always have Huertas, Navarro and God out there in some combination and stretches with all three together. But even as that was the case and Wallace stole some minutes on the wing, Abrines and Ingles still combined for over 27 minutes. In a closer game, the combo doing better than a combined seven points on eight shots and no assists might be the difference between Barcelona or Panathinaikos advancing to the Final Four.
Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.
This has been an extremely close series throughout. The first three games were decided by a combined mere five points (not that it stopped some to affirm one coach has thoroughly outcoached the other); decided on missed free-throws, a step-back three-pointer that went in despite a large human all over the shooter and a non-shooter passing up two wide-open three-pointers. Only game four featured some disparity between the teams but that was mostly due to the fact Barcelona was more desperate as it needed to win to force Thursday’s decisive game five and one can argue Panathinaikos wasn’t as well prepared as it should.
Sometimes only in desperation we take the necessary measures. Barcelona defended in zone the vast majority of game four. It was the most effective way to hide Juan Carlos Navarro, maximize the reckless Marcelinho Huertas, have God Jasikevicius on the court with both Huertas and Navarro for longer stretches, secure long minutes for Erazem Lorbek and depend less on the offensive challenged Victor Sada and CJ Wallace, besides the struggling Joe Ingles.
Barcelona closed the top 16 ranked second in scoring efficiency, but struggled in the first three games, getting held under a point per possession. By limiting the exposure of the team’s worst defenders, Pascual was able to keep Huertas, Navarro and Lorbek on the court for over 30 minutes each on game four and Barça was finally able to dismantle Panathinaikos’ prolific defense for 70 points on 68 possessions, behind 24 points in the lane and 27 from three-point range.
Lorbek hasn’t played as well as last season mostly because his role within the offense has changed but he remains an integral component for the team’s success, as he is way more versatile (with his passing, ability to attack players of the same size off the dribble, shoot from anywhere and transform busted plays into quick post-ups) a scoring threat than Wallace, who becomes useless on offense when his spot-up outside shot isn’t falling - which has been the case in this series. So, it’s no coincidence that Barça played its best offense when Lorbek was on the court the most time.
It will be curious to see how Argiris Pedoulakis adjusts for game five. In theory, Sofoklis Schortsanitis would be the best outlet for scoring against a zone and Sofo got more run in the last two games than he did in the first two but that was still only a combined 26 minutes. Barça forced both Stephane Lasme and Kostas Tsartsaris into making questionable decisions (the former with mid-range jumpers, the latter turning it over all around the place) and counted with some opportune poor three-point shooting by PAO.
One interesting scenario Pedoulakis hasn’t explored much is playing a smaller lineup (featuring Roko Ukic, Dimitris Diamantidis, Michael Bramos, Jonas Maciulus, Lasme) for extended stretches. If James Gist is 100%, then there really is no need as he combines the outside shooting and athleticism to attack closeouts, besides the size not to give up anything on defense. But Gist looked limited by injury last Thursday and struggled to finish against the crowd in the Catalan lane. If that’s the case again, maybe Pedoulakis should consider going small in a high leverage situation. Barça doesn’t post up Lorbek all that much anymore and even if they did, Maciulus could do a good enough job holding ground until the double comes and there is enough speed around with Bramos and Lasme to rotate effectively.
We are most likely to see the opposite, though. Both teams went super big at one point in the third quarter of game four, when Wallace-Lorbek-Tomic matched up Gist-Tsartsaris-Lasme upfront. Tsartsaris made too many bad decisions inside the zone and it is hard to justify his presence when he is such a negative on offense but if Schortsanitis gets in foul trouble or flat out tired too soon, Tsartsaris might still get the nod as he can still hold the ball higher than Lasme and Gist and see over the top of the swarming wing defenders. Defensively, Gist did great defending the perimeter, overwhelming God with his physicality and size to such a point that Pascual had to take him out of the game. So, Pedolakis could still go there and set up some better screening by the bigs playing off the ball, so that Tsartsaris have some clearer passes to make. It’s just as important that the perimeter players go better than five-for-23 from three-point range too.
Diamantidis will for sure play better, after somehow going scoreless on 0-for-5 shooting from three-point range in 35 minutes. He did have six assists but Panathinaikos doesn’t have enough firepower to win without him scoring. Considering Ukic had four points on 2-for-11 shooting on 25 minutes, it’s easy to understand how they were down 16 at the end of the third quarter. Maciulus (on post-ups against smaller defenders) and Bramos (in transition and off the dribble) are capable of creating something for themselves on occasion but without backcourt production, there just isn’t enough volume to go by a defense like Barcelona’s.
Panathinaikos will be more prepared to counter Barcelona’s zone and is likely to have more success on offense. At Palau Blaugrana, Barcelona will not shoot 12 fewer free-throws than Panathinaikos as it was the case last Thursday on OAKA, but the difference in the game might still come to whether or not Ingles and Alex Abrines provide anything on offense. If the zone continues to be effective, even if not as much as game four, it will permit Pascual to always have Huertas, Navarro and God out there in some combination and stretches with all three together. But even as that was the case and Wallace stole some minutes on the wing, Abrines and Ingles still combined for over 27 minutes. In a closer game, the combo doing better than a combined seven points on eight shots and no assists might be the difference between Barcelona or Panathinaikos advancing to the Final Four.
Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.
Nuggets v Warriors, the Funnest First-Round Series
By Rafael Uehara
Denver and Golden State rank second and fourth, respectively, in pace so this will be quite the fun series, especially because it features Stephen Curry, who might just be the coolest player to watch in the NBA right now. Over the last couple of months, he dropped 54 points on the Knicks at Madison Square Garden and 47 on the Lakers at Staples Center. It looks that every time Curry pulls up for a jumper, it is going in. He finished the season shooting 45.5% from three-point range, including a league-leading 52.8% on corner-three-pointers, according to NBA.com/Stats/.
I would love to see coaches being more proactive with cross matches on defense. George Karl should have Andre Iguodala guarding Curry since the tip-off of game one. I doubt that will be the case, though. So I’m curious to see if Ty Lawson takes this next step of his development and starts playing better defense. He ranked 252nd in the league in scoring allowed per possession, according to mysynergysports.com’s charting, and the Nuggets defended over six points per 100 possessions better with him on the bench, per NBA.com/advancedstats/.
The Nuggets led the league in scoring at the rim behind not just a transition-oriented offense fueled by aggressive leak-outs but because of strong attacks to the lane in the half-court. Grantland’s Zach Lowe constantly mentions how Lawson leads the league in drives that get him within 10 feet of the rim. Denver’s drive-and-kick offense stresses the opponent’s help-defense rotations to generate breakdowns and somebody is always open below the rim at some point.
Golden State will be relying on Andrew Bogut’s paint protection to contain Denver’s frenetic dribble penetration but it is not quite sure Bogut is still the sort of disrupting force on defense the Warriors will need to win this series. The Australian big was active in just 32 games this season and though that isn’t a lot, it isn’t too little data either. With him on the floor, the Warriors allowed 107.2 points per 100 possessions, 5.5 full points than with him out of the lineup.
You might think the Nuggets aren’t a force in prevention either, but they actually finished ninth in scoring allowed per possession. Iguodala’s presence, a healthier Chandler and a more grounded JaVale McGee are factors responsible for Denver’s improvement on defense. With Danilo Gallinari out for the playoffs and Kenneth Faried out at least for the opener, I’m curious to see what George Karl does with the rotation. At least one of Evan Fournier and Anthony Randolph will need to get some minutes and both have hurt the team’s defense significantly the last month.
Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.
Denver and Golden State rank second and fourth, respectively, in pace so this will be quite the fun series, especially because it features Stephen Curry, who might just be the coolest player to watch in the NBA right now. Over the last couple of months, he dropped 54 points on the Knicks at Madison Square Garden and 47 on the Lakers at Staples Center. It looks that every time Curry pulls up for a jumper, it is going in. He finished the season shooting 45.5% from three-point range, including a league-leading 52.8% on corner-three-pointers, according to NBA.com/Stats/.
I would love to see coaches being more proactive with cross matches on defense. George Karl should have Andre Iguodala guarding Curry since the tip-off of game one. I doubt that will be the case, though. So I’m curious to see if Ty Lawson takes this next step of his development and starts playing better defense. He ranked 252nd in the league in scoring allowed per possession, according to mysynergysports.com’s charting, and the Nuggets defended over six points per 100 possessions better with him on the bench, per NBA.com/advancedstats/.
The Nuggets led the league in scoring at the rim behind not just a transition-oriented offense fueled by aggressive leak-outs but because of strong attacks to the lane in the half-court. Grantland’s Zach Lowe constantly mentions how Lawson leads the league in drives that get him within 10 feet of the rim. Denver’s drive-and-kick offense stresses the opponent’s help-defense rotations to generate breakdowns and somebody is always open below the rim at some point.
Golden State will be relying on Andrew Bogut’s paint protection to contain Denver’s frenetic dribble penetration but it is not quite sure Bogut is still the sort of disrupting force on defense the Warriors will need to win this series. The Australian big was active in just 32 games this season and though that isn’t a lot, it isn’t too little data either. With him on the floor, the Warriors allowed 107.2 points per 100 possessions, 5.5 full points than with him out of the lineup.
You might think the Nuggets aren’t a force in prevention either, but they actually finished ninth in scoring allowed per possession. Iguodala’s presence, a healthier Chandler and a more grounded JaVale McGee are factors responsible for Denver’s improvement on defense. With Danilo Gallinari out for the playoffs and Kenneth Faried out at least for the opener, I’m curious to see what George Karl does with the rotation. At least one of Evan Fournier and Anthony Randolph will need to get some minutes and both have hurt the team’s defense significantly the last month.
Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.
Knicks v Celtics, the Top-Ranked Series in Spite
By Rafael Uehara
This series will likely be the one featuring the most venom. Kevin Garnett said whatever he did to Carmelo Anthony about his wife and Anthony waited for Garnett at the Celtics’ bus after that first meeting of the season. Not much happened in the other two games but one assumes that Garnett will try his crap again in the postseason, simply because that’s what he does but because the Knicks are mostly a better team too. New York also just signed Quentin Richardson, whom Paul Pierce hates. Richardson likely won’t play a minute but his mere presence implies the likelihood things will heat up at any minute.
New York was very uneven during the season, starting red hot then playing mediocre ball midway through then finishing red hot again. Injuries to all their big men leave them vulnerable, though. Tyson Chandler plays when his neck allows him to. Kenyon Martin didn’t make 20 games without being sidelined. I’m not quite sure Amar’e Stoudemire still exists. Rasheed Wallace retired. Kurt Thomas was after what was by all accounts a semi-barbaric effort. Marcus Camby played in 24 games total this season. It will not take a long list of unexpected events for the Knicks to end up relying on Earl Barron at key moments during the series. It is actually quite likely that will be the case at some point.
I’m curious to see which JR Smith shows up for the playoffs. The one that shot around 40% throughout most of the season or the guy who averaged over five free throws a game in the last couple of months. It’s no coincidence that Knicks’ best stretches (early and late in the season) featured efficient play from Smith. He is the team’s second most talented shot creator, either to himself or others, but that aspect is neutralized when he is pulling up for ill-advised step-back jumpers all over the place. Either Courtney Lee or Avery Bradley will be assigned to guard him and it will be interesting to watch whether Smith regresses to his bad instincts once pressured by high quality defenders.
The Celtics notoriously struggle to generate offense. That was the case even with Rajon Rondo in the lineup and didn’t particularly get much worse statistically speaking without him. It has taken a bit more effort, though, which means Doc Rivers might continue playing Terrence Williams and Jordan Crawford. So deal with it. Aside from Pierce and Garnett playing out of their minds, the Celtics will need a good performance out of Brandon Sam Bass to pull the upset. Bass will be guarded by a combination of Anthony, Chris Copeland, Iman Shumpert (a good defender but undersized for this matchup), maybe even Steve Novak (though that’s only if Mike Woodson actually plays him decent minutes) and, hell, Jason Kidd (because sure, whatever…) Bass struggled in the first half of the season but was quite good during the garbage month of April, so he could carry that momentum into the postseason.
Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.
This series will likely be the one featuring the most venom. Kevin Garnett said whatever he did to Carmelo Anthony about his wife and Anthony waited for Garnett at the Celtics’ bus after that first meeting of the season. Not much happened in the other two games but one assumes that Garnett will try his crap again in the postseason, simply because that’s what he does but because the Knicks are mostly a better team too. New York also just signed Quentin Richardson, whom Paul Pierce hates. Richardson likely won’t play a minute but his mere presence implies the likelihood things will heat up at any minute.
New York was very uneven during the season, starting red hot then playing mediocre ball midway through then finishing red hot again. Injuries to all their big men leave them vulnerable, though. Tyson Chandler plays when his neck allows him to. Kenyon Martin didn’t make 20 games without being sidelined. I’m not quite sure Amar’e Stoudemire still exists. Rasheed Wallace retired. Kurt Thomas was after what was by all accounts a semi-barbaric effort. Marcus Camby played in 24 games total this season. It will not take a long list of unexpected events for the Knicks to end up relying on Earl Barron at key moments during the series. It is actually quite likely that will be the case at some point.
I’m curious to see which JR Smith shows up for the playoffs. The one that shot around 40% throughout most of the season or the guy who averaged over five free throws a game in the last couple of months. It’s no coincidence that Knicks’ best stretches (early and late in the season) featured efficient play from Smith. He is the team’s second most talented shot creator, either to himself or others, but that aspect is neutralized when he is pulling up for ill-advised step-back jumpers all over the place. Either Courtney Lee or Avery Bradley will be assigned to guard him and it will be interesting to watch whether Smith regresses to his bad instincts once pressured by high quality defenders.
The Celtics notoriously struggle to generate offense. That was the case even with Rajon Rondo in the lineup and didn’t particularly get much worse statistically speaking without him. It has taken a bit more effort, though, which means Doc Rivers might continue playing Terrence Williams and Jordan Crawford. So deal with it. Aside from Pierce and Garnett playing out of their minds, the Celtics will need a good performance out of Brandon Sam Bass to pull the upset. Bass will be guarded by a combination of Anthony, Chris Copeland, Iman Shumpert (a good defender but undersized for this matchup), maybe even Steve Novak (though that’s only if Mike Woodson actually plays him decent minutes) and, hell, Jason Kidd (because sure, whatever…) Bass struggled in the first half of the season but was quite good during the garbage month of April, so he could carry that momentum into the postseason.
Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.
Heat v Bucks, Predictable But Not Uninteresting
By Rafael Uehara
Miami should blow by Milwaukee but that doesn’t mean there is nothing of interest in this series. Surprisingly, the Heat was average getting to the rim in volume this season but led the league in shooting percentage at the restricted area. The Bucks have in LARRY SANDERS! arguably the best interior defender in the NBA. Because everyone around him is overmatched defensively, SANDERS! hasn’t been capable of single handily keeping opponents away from the basket. Milwaukee allowed the most shots at the restricted area this season, according to NBA.com/Stats/. But he has been able to erase some mistakes with his shot blocking. LeBron James’ and Dwyane Wade’s aggression against SANDERS!’s rim protection will be something cool to watch.
Based on his usage of Marquis Daniels during the season, don’t be shocked if Jim Boylan tasks him with guarding either Wade or James for extended minutes and take Mike Dunleavy, Jr.’s minutes away in the process. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute is one of the best individual defenders all around but has dealt with injuries late in the year and might not be a factor. Boylan is also likely to continue starting Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis together, which should result in the Bucks always playing catch-up. I hope Boylan plays John Henson at center on SANDERS!-less minutes rather than Samuel Dalembert or Joel Przybila because of some bullshit veteran experience rationalization.
I expect the Heat to return to last postseason’s starting lineup with Shane Battier at stretch-four/post defender at some point during this playoff run. I’m curious to see how soon Erik Spoelstra does it. He has not shown any hesitation of changing starting lineups in the middle of series at all during his career, so he might wait until he is forced to in the second-round but there is an argument that the sooner he does the inevitable, the better. If he continues to start two true big-men for now, many argue Chris Andersen should be starting rather than Udonis Haslem. Quite frankly, I don’t see much of a difference between the two within the first group but believe Andersen is way more impactful in the alternative lineups that don’t feature Bosh, which is probably why Spoelstra will keep him there at this moment.
Outside of Bosh or Wade or James getting hurt, I think the only way a team can beat Miami is through out-of-mind ball swinging and strong three-point shooting. That’s how the Mavericks did it a couple of years ago. The Bucks actually have some of the pieces to put something with that strategy in mind together, with JJ Redick, Dunleavy, Jr. and Ersan Ilyasova as three of the best outside shooters in the league, while all capable of putting the floor for a couple of dribbles and find a spot-up option despite their lack of speed at their respective positions. Lineups featuring all three of them would be giving up a lot defensively, even with SANDERS! behind them, but it’s not like the Bucks have much of a legit shot playing by conventional thinking of balance. Can’t see that being a strategy Boylan uses, though. Redick, Dunleavy, Jr. and Ilyasova shared the court a grant total of 129 minutes, according to NBA.com/Stats/.
Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.
Miami should blow by Milwaukee but that doesn’t mean there is nothing of interest in this series. Surprisingly, the Heat was average getting to the rim in volume this season but led the league in shooting percentage at the restricted area. The Bucks have in LARRY SANDERS! arguably the best interior defender in the NBA. Because everyone around him is overmatched defensively, SANDERS! hasn’t been capable of single handily keeping opponents away from the basket. Milwaukee allowed the most shots at the restricted area this season, according to NBA.com/Stats/. But he has been able to erase some mistakes with his shot blocking. LeBron James’ and Dwyane Wade’s aggression against SANDERS!’s rim protection will be something cool to watch.
Based on his usage of Marquis Daniels during the season, don’t be shocked if Jim Boylan tasks him with guarding either Wade or James for extended minutes and take Mike Dunleavy, Jr.’s minutes away in the process. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute is one of the best individual defenders all around but has dealt with injuries late in the year and might not be a factor. Boylan is also likely to continue starting Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis together, which should result in the Bucks always playing catch-up. I hope Boylan plays John Henson at center on SANDERS!-less minutes rather than Samuel Dalembert or Joel Przybila because of some bullshit veteran experience rationalization.
I expect the Heat to return to last postseason’s starting lineup with Shane Battier at stretch-four/post defender at some point during this playoff run. I’m curious to see how soon Erik Spoelstra does it. He has not shown any hesitation of changing starting lineups in the middle of series at all during his career, so he might wait until he is forced to in the second-round but there is an argument that the sooner he does the inevitable, the better. If he continues to start two true big-men for now, many argue Chris Andersen should be starting rather than Udonis Haslem. Quite frankly, I don’t see much of a difference between the two within the first group but believe Andersen is way more impactful in the alternative lineups that don’t feature Bosh, which is probably why Spoelstra will keep him there at this moment.
Outside of Bosh or Wade or James getting hurt, I think the only way a team can beat Miami is through out-of-mind ball swinging and strong three-point shooting. That’s how the Mavericks did it a couple of years ago. The Bucks actually have some of the pieces to put something with that strategy in mind together, with JJ Redick, Dunleavy, Jr. and Ersan Ilyasova as three of the best outside shooters in the league, while all capable of putting the floor for a couple of dribbles and find a spot-up option despite their lack of speed at their respective positions. Lineups featuring all three of them would be giving up a lot defensively, even with SANDERS! behind them, but it’s not like the Bucks have much of a legit shot playing by conventional thinking of balance. Can’t see that being a strategy Boylan uses, though. Redick, Dunleavy, Jr. and Ilyasova shared the court a grant total of 129 minutes, according to NBA.com/Stats/.
Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.
The Context on Erazem Lorbek’s Bad Season
By Rafael Uehara
Erazem Lorbek was Regal FC Barcelona’s best and most important player last season. Though Juan Carlos Navarro remained of critical importance, it was Lorbek the one responsible for carrying the team’s outdated offense. If not for Andrei Kirilenko’s one-season cameo, Lorbek would likely have earned Euroleague MVP honors. With Navarro’s conditioning deteriorating as the year went along and Marcelinho Huertas continuing to have very little freedom within the attack, Barcelona grew progressively more codependent of Lorbek, to the point that when he chose a bad day to have a bad day, Barça couldn’t generate offense against Dusan Ivkovic’s stingy Olympiacos defense in the Euroleague semifinal.
After that underwhelming performance, Lorbek drew some criticism but bounced back with a quality run in the Spanish ACB’s postseason, earning Finals MVP honors as an unusually underdog Barça squad managed to overcome arch-rivals Real Madrid once more. With such a prolific year and his contract at Palau Blaugrana expiring, rumor was Lorbek would join the San Antonio Spurs in the summer. Except that looking to retain its best player (perhaps after assessing that there was no replacement at the same caliber in the market as Joel Freeland also bolted for the NBA), Barcelona offered him the richest contract in European basketball (reportedly higher than Navarro’s and Rudy Fernandez’s) and Lorbek chose to stay.
But things haven’t gone the way last year’s went. In order not to be so one-dimensional yet again, Barcelona replaced its defensive stalwarts at center with more offensive pedigree and head-coach Xavi Pascual modernized the attack, shifting away from Lorbek in the post to more perimeter-oriented sets featuring heavy usage of 1-5 pick-and-rolls and motion concepts. Barcelona ran lots of pick-and-rolls last season but the vast majority of them were centered on Navarro and Lorbek. This season, Huertas has been a lot more involved, Saras Jasikevicius was brought in and even Joe Ingles got to do some playmaking early in the season when Navarro was out. And centers Ante Tomic and Nathan Jawai are mostly the primary screeners.
So, the context regarding Lorbek’s low-profile year is that his role within the offense has changed significantly. He is simply not being relied upon as much. According to gigabaset.org, his usage-rate per game has declined from 11.27 to 8.93. Lorbek is no longer featured in the low block as often and Pascual has mostly used him as a stretch-four, camping around the perimeter away from the pick-and-roll action or cutting for foul line catch-and-shoots on the motion stuff. He has mostly excelled at his assignment, gunning 50% from three-point range in Euroleague play, though after a couple of cold outside shooting outings, he is now at 28% in the Spanish ACB. It just hasn’t been as shinny as last season.
His Euroleague minutes are down from 25 a game a year ago to 20-and-a-half this campaign but I think it can mostly be explained by Pascual’s feel that this team needs CJ Wallace’s defensive presence more, especially in this late stretch, rather than a particular unhappiness with Lorbek’s low key performance. Barça has added defensive challenged centers in Tomic and Jawai and part of why they have continued to field the stingiest defense in European ball is due to Wallace’s impact in prevention. According to in-the-game.org, lineups featuring Wallace are allowing 93.7 points per 100 possessions in comparison to 96.5 with Lorbek. Though he isn’t dead weight in prevention, Barça defends better without Lorbek in the lineup.
The first couple games of the Euroleague quarterfinal series against Panathinaikos pretty much accurately encapsulates Lorbek’s season. He wasn’t featured as much on offense and Pascual preferred to have the limited Wallace out there instead of Lorbek late in games. By my count, Lorbek was featured in just 15 of Barcelona’s 147 possessions over the first two games; eight post-ups, three spot-ups, one in transition, one floating around the baseline off the ball, one pick-and-roll and one wing isolation. He has just seven points on 2-for-9 shooting in 38 minutes of playing time in the series.
Lorbek has been transformed into a bonafide role player. His scoring is down from 13 to just under 10 a game this season. We have seen flashes of that force he was a year ago (terrific 21-point outing against Olympiacos last month) but that's no longer what is asked of him. It can't be ignored he really is struggling over this latest stretch, however, and though Barça doesn't rely on him to generate all of their offense anymore, he is still their second best long-range shooter behind Navarro and without production from him, Panathinaikos can load up the strong side on pick-and-rolls and have the wing defenders pack it in to take away the lob to Tomic and Jawai. It remains of huge importance for Barça that Lorbek can make a positive impact in this series, either attacking closeouts some more or scoring with his touches on the post just enough to be a threat so PAO can't go small and maximize the dribble drive offense that helped them tie the series.
Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.
Erazem Lorbek was Regal FC Barcelona’s best and most important player last season. Though Juan Carlos Navarro remained of critical importance, it was Lorbek the one responsible for carrying the team’s outdated offense. If not for Andrei Kirilenko’s one-season cameo, Lorbek would likely have earned Euroleague MVP honors. With Navarro’s conditioning deteriorating as the year went along and Marcelinho Huertas continuing to have very little freedom within the attack, Barcelona grew progressively more codependent of Lorbek, to the point that when he chose a bad day to have a bad day, Barça couldn’t generate offense against Dusan Ivkovic’s stingy Olympiacos defense in the Euroleague semifinal.
After that underwhelming performance, Lorbek drew some criticism but bounced back with a quality run in the Spanish ACB’s postseason, earning Finals MVP honors as an unusually underdog Barça squad managed to overcome arch-rivals Real Madrid once more. With such a prolific year and his contract at Palau Blaugrana expiring, rumor was Lorbek would join the San Antonio Spurs in the summer. Except that looking to retain its best player (perhaps after assessing that there was no replacement at the same caliber in the market as Joel Freeland also bolted for the NBA), Barcelona offered him the richest contract in European basketball (reportedly higher than Navarro’s and Rudy Fernandez’s) and Lorbek chose to stay.
But things haven’t gone the way last year’s went. In order not to be so one-dimensional yet again, Barcelona replaced its defensive stalwarts at center with more offensive pedigree and head-coach Xavi Pascual modernized the attack, shifting away from Lorbek in the post to more perimeter-oriented sets featuring heavy usage of 1-5 pick-and-rolls and motion concepts. Barcelona ran lots of pick-and-rolls last season but the vast majority of them were centered on Navarro and Lorbek. This season, Huertas has been a lot more involved, Saras Jasikevicius was brought in and even Joe Ingles got to do some playmaking early in the season when Navarro was out. And centers Ante Tomic and Nathan Jawai are mostly the primary screeners.
So, the context regarding Lorbek’s low-profile year is that his role within the offense has changed significantly. He is simply not being relied upon as much. According to gigabaset.org, his usage-rate per game has declined from 11.27 to 8.93. Lorbek is no longer featured in the low block as often and Pascual has mostly used him as a stretch-four, camping around the perimeter away from the pick-and-roll action or cutting for foul line catch-and-shoots on the motion stuff. He has mostly excelled at his assignment, gunning 50% from three-point range in Euroleague play, though after a couple of cold outside shooting outings, he is now at 28% in the Spanish ACB. It just hasn’t been as shinny as last season.
His Euroleague minutes are down from 25 a game a year ago to 20-and-a-half this campaign but I think it can mostly be explained by Pascual’s feel that this team needs CJ Wallace’s defensive presence more, especially in this late stretch, rather than a particular unhappiness with Lorbek’s low key performance. Barça has added defensive challenged centers in Tomic and Jawai and part of why they have continued to field the stingiest defense in European ball is due to Wallace’s impact in prevention. According to in-the-game.org, lineups featuring Wallace are allowing 93.7 points per 100 possessions in comparison to 96.5 with Lorbek. Though he isn’t dead weight in prevention, Barça defends better without Lorbek in the lineup.
The first couple games of the Euroleague quarterfinal series against Panathinaikos pretty much accurately encapsulates Lorbek’s season. He wasn’t featured as much on offense and Pascual preferred to have the limited Wallace out there instead of Lorbek late in games. By my count, Lorbek was featured in just 15 of Barcelona’s 147 possessions over the first two games; eight post-ups, three spot-ups, one in transition, one floating around the baseline off the ball, one pick-and-roll and one wing isolation. He has just seven points on 2-for-9 shooting in 38 minutes of playing time in the series.
Lorbek has been transformed into a bonafide role player. His scoring is down from 13 to just under 10 a game this season. We have seen flashes of that force he was a year ago (terrific 21-point outing against Olympiacos last month) but that's no longer what is asked of him. It can't be ignored he really is struggling over this latest stretch, however, and though Barça doesn't rely on him to generate all of their offense anymore, he is still their second best long-range shooter behind Navarro and without production from him, Panathinaikos can load up the strong side on pick-and-rolls and have the wing defenders pack it in to take away the lob to Tomic and Jawai. It remains of huge importance for Barça that Lorbek can make a positive impact in this series, either attacking closeouts some more or scoring with his touches on the post just enough to be a threat so PAO can't go small and maximize the dribble drive offense that helped them tie the series.
Editor's Note: Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.
Tough Draw for Overlooked Maccabi Tel Aviv
By Rafael Uehara
Of all the top contenders for the Euroleague championship, Maccabi Tel Aviv opens the quarterfinals as the least hyped. Even Anadolu Efes has gotten some love, while David Blatt’s squad remains highly underrated. This roster has no Theo Papaloukas, no Sofoklis Schortsanitis, no Keith Langford, no Richard Hendrix, no Chuck Eidson, no Doron Perkins and no Jeremy Pargo. But this starless team (with all due respect to Devin Smith and Shawn James) looked at times as the most poised of the Blatt Era to go all the way.
After struggling at the start of the top 16, Maccabi is peaking at the exact right time, having won six of their last seven games and losing to Barcelona at Palau Blaugrana by just three points last week. They reach the quarterfinals with tremendous momentum, behind quality balance between offense and defense. Maccabi leads the Euroleague in scoring per possession (though mostly thanks a 101-point effort against Besiktas) and ranks fifth in scoring allowed per possession.
Looking to the maximize the athletic potential of his roster, Blatt has Maccabi playing aggressive defense, with David Logan, Ricky Hickman and Yogev Ohayon free to apply pressure on opposing ball-handlers and be active attacking passing lanes thanks to the shot-blocking protection of James behind them. Maccabi leads the league in steal-rate and block-rate. Takeaways, paint protection (opponents shoot just 59.7% at the rim) and discipline (the team is second in opponents’ free-throw rate) are at the core of Maccabi’s defensive prolificacy, which they use to ignite their offense on the other end.
Maccabi takes the most mid-range jumpers in the league and gets to the foul line at below average rate. A huge chunk of their easy scoring comes in transition and on putbacks, and James often gets those trailing on the break. They rank third in the league in three-point shooting and turn the ball over few times but points at the rim are an essential requisite for championship contention. Maccabi doesn’t get to the restricted area as often as Barcelona, CSKA Moscow and Olympiacos do but shoots 66.8% when they get there, thanks in large part to points off turnovers.
The quarterfinal series against Real Madrid is statistically a head-to-head between teams with similar profiles. Madrid scores and prevents at about the exact same level. They lost three of four in Euroleague play and lost to Valência in the Spanish ACB on Sunday, but did a lot of good this season before dealing with this semi-crisis, including significant improvement on defense.
And they project to hold a severe advantage over Maccabi in rebounding. The Israeli club ranks last in defensive-rebounding rate among the quarterfinals participants, while Real Madrid ranks first in offensive-rebounding rate. Caner-Medley and Lior Eliyahu are poor rebounders for their size. Maccabi tried signing Aron Baynes after the initial group stages but judged the transfer fee asked by Union Olimpija too high, and settled for Planinic instead. The 23-year-old is yet to help.
Madrid should also try taking advantage of the strength-challenged James in the post, pairing Felipe Reyes with Nikola Mirotic more than they have done this season or maybe even with Mirza Begic. It isn’t unthinkable we might see some Rafael Hettsheimeir too.
Real Madrid is also the team that least turns it over in the Euroleague. Sergio Llull is a shaky ball-handler and Rudy Fernandez can be reckless at times, but Pablo Laso still has reliable options such as Sergio Rodriguez and Don Draper to go to if the starters can’t negotiate the on-ball pressure well.
So, to sum up: Real Madrid is a tough draw for Maccabi Tel Aviv. Blatt’s squad arrives playing better ball as of late but still open the series as underdogs.
Editor's Note: All statistical data on this post was researched at in-the-game.org, one phenomenal website dedicated to keeping track of advanced statistics in the EuroLeague. Simon Jatsch does an amazing job and I hope he knows how much his work is appreciated.
Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.
Of all the top contenders for the Euroleague championship, Maccabi Tel Aviv opens the quarterfinals as the least hyped. Even Anadolu Efes has gotten some love, while David Blatt’s squad remains highly underrated. This roster has no Theo Papaloukas, no Sofoklis Schortsanitis, no Keith Langford, no Richard Hendrix, no Chuck Eidson, no Doron Perkins and no Jeremy Pargo. But this starless team (with all due respect to Devin Smith and Shawn James) looked at times as the most poised of the Blatt Era to go all the way.
After struggling at the start of the top 16, Maccabi is peaking at the exact right time, having won six of their last seven games and losing to Barcelona at Palau Blaugrana by just three points last week. They reach the quarterfinals with tremendous momentum, behind quality balance between offense and defense. Maccabi leads the Euroleague in scoring per possession (though mostly thanks a 101-point effort against Besiktas) and ranks fifth in scoring allowed per possession.
Looking to the maximize the athletic potential of his roster, Blatt has Maccabi playing aggressive defense, with David Logan, Ricky Hickman and Yogev Ohayon free to apply pressure on opposing ball-handlers and be active attacking passing lanes thanks to the shot-blocking protection of James behind them. Maccabi leads the league in steal-rate and block-rate. Takeaways, paint protection (opponents shoot just 59.7% at the rim) and discipline (the team is second in opponents’ free-throw rate) are at the core of Maccabi’s defensive prolificacy, which they use to ignite their offense on the other end.
Maccabi takes the most mid-range jumpers in the league and gets to the foul line at below average rate. A huge chunk of their easy scoring comes in transition and on putbacks, and James often gets those trailing on the break. They rank third in the league in three-point shooting and turn the ball over few times but points at the rim are an essential requisite for championship contention. Maccabi doesn’t get to the restricted area as often as Barcelona, CSKA Moscow and Olympiacos do but shoots 66.8% when they get there, thanks in large part to points off turnovers.
The quarterfinal series against Real Madrid is statistically a head-to-head between teams with similar profiles. Madrid scores and prevents at about the exact same level. They lost three of four in Euroleague play and lost to Valência in the Spanish ACB on Sunday, but did a lot of good this season before dealing with this semi-crisis, including significant improvement on defense.
And they project to hold a severe advantage over Maccabi in rebounding. The Israeli club ranks last in defensive-rebounding rate among the quarterfinals participants, while Real Madrid ranks first in offensive-rebounding rate. Caner-Medley and Lior Eliyahu are poor rebounders for their size. Maccabi tried signing Aron Baynes after the initial group stages but judged the transfer fee asked by Union Olimpija too high, and settled for Planinic instead. The 23-year-old is yet to help.
Madrid should also try taking advantage of the strength-challenged James in the post, pairing Felipe Reyes with Nikola Mirotic more than they have done this season or maybe even with Mirza Begic. It isn’t unthinkable we might see some Rafael Hettsheimeir too.
Real Madrid is also the team that least turns it over in the Euroleague. Sergio Llull is a shaky ball-handler and Rudy Fernandez can be reckless at times, but Pablo Laso still has reliable options such as Sergio Rodriguez and Don Draper to go to if the starters can’t negotiate the on-ball pressure well.
So, to sum up: Real Madrid is a tough draw for Maccabi Tel Aviv. Blatt’s squad arrives playing better ball as of late but still open the series as underdogs.
Editor's Note: All statistical data on this post was researched at in-the-game.org, one phenomenal website dedicated to keeping track of advanced statistics in the EuroLeague. Simon Jatsch does an amazing job and I hope he knows how much his work is appreciated.
Rafael Uehara is the managing editor of 'The Basketball Post'. More of his work can be found here and he can be followed on twitter @rafael_uehara.